ES Setif v Témouchent prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

ES Setif 1–2 Témouchent ES SETIF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ES Setif win~~56%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.077

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.293

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ES Setif win at 56%.
0′KICK-OFF ES Setif v Témouchent
1′Much as we predicted: ES Setif was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–27–17
16′Témouchent find the net on 15′. 0–1. 0–1 · 24–28–48
16′We said ES Setif at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' ES Setif 0–1 Témouchent
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' ES Setif win: 56% at kick-off, 24% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Témouchent win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was ES Setif win 52%)
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Témouchent
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Témouchent
28′A goal for ES Setif on 27′. 0–1 · 20–29–52
29′We said ES Setif at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 19–29–53
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' ES Setif win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
43′We said ES Setif at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Témouchent
45′HALF-TIME ES Setif 0–1 Témouchent
45′SECOND HALF ES Setif 0–1 Témouchent
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' ES Setif · On: A. A. Bouneqab · Off: D. Hassen Khodja
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' ES Setif · On: M. Hamek · Off: M. Boukerma
55′We said ES Setif at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–64
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' ES Setif win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
65′A goal for ES Setif on 64′. 0–1 · 6–23–71
68′We said ES Setif at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–74
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Témouchent · On: G. Wael · Off: I. Saihi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' ES Setif · On: M. Zerrouki · Off: L. Tabti
75′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Témouchent · On: M. Itim · Off: M. H. Hedroug
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' ES Setif
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' ES Setif 0–2 Témouchent
84′A goal for Témouchent on 83′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Témouchent
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Témouchent
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' ES Setif · On: I. Bouchagoura · Off: M. Omfia
90′Full time, 1–2. We called ES Setif at 56% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
92′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–3–97
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' ES Setif 1–2 Témouchent
93′ES Setif score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME ES Setif 1–2 Témouchent
FTES Setif 1–2 Témouchent · ES Setif win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ES Setif are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ES Setif 56%, draw 27%, Témouchent 17%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on ES Setif v TémouchentBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

ES Setif win56%

Draw27%

Témouchent win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ES Setif

Témouchent

10Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	ES Setif	5	+2	5
13	Témouchent	6	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · es setif winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 03:52 · locked at kick-off

56% The market66%

Us56%

~~Market~~66%

We make ES Setif a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ES Setif v Témouchent~~1.46 – 0.65

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~11 v 13

~~The market · ES Setif win~~66% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ES Setif win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ES Setif win	56%	66%	−10
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Témouchent win	17%	10%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Both teams to score	36%	33%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	62%	63%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−4
ES Setif or draw	83%	90%	−7
ES Setif clean sheet	52%	–	–
Témouchent clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.3%

0123450 12.9 7.9 2.7 1 17.3 11.4 3.7 2 12.5 8.0 2.6 3 6.2 3.9 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ES Setif down, Témouchent across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,310 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

ES Setif at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Témouchent away: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for ES Setif, 0.65 for Témouchent. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 3 Sept

ES SETIF

LLWDD0–1 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

TÉMOUCHENT

DLWLLD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MC Oran	6	+5	14
2	JS Kabylie	6	+7	13
3	CR Belouizdad	5	+4	13
4	MB Rouisset	6	+3	12
5	USM Alger	5	+3	10
6	Olympique Akbou	6	+3	10
7	JS El Biar	7	+1	8
8	MC Alger	3	+3	7
9	CS Constantine	7	−4	7
10	Ben Aknoun	5	0	6
11	ES Setif	5	+2	5
12	Khenchela	6	−3	5
13	Témouchent	6	−4	5
14	ASO Chlef	6	−5	3
15	JS Saoura	5	−6	2
16	US Biskra	6	−9	2