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Model 1.1

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ES Setif v JS Kabylie

ES Setif
1–1Full time
JS Kabylie

Ligue 1 · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30
ES Setif 1–1 JS Kabylie ES SETIF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ES Setif win42%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.745
The market’s Brier score0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ES Setif win at 42%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF ES Setif v JS Kabylie
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: ES Setif was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–28
  4. 11′11′ and it is 1–0: ES Setif have scored. 1–0 · 72–19–9
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' ES Setif 1–0 JS Kabylie
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' ES Setif win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  7. 12′We published ES Setif at 42%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
  8. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' ES Setif
  9. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' L. Tabti · ES Setif
  10. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 25' L. Tabti · ES Setif
  11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
  12. 32′We published ES Setif at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  13. 33′JS Kabylie find the net on 33′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–39–25
  14. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' ES Setif 1–1 JS Kabylie
  15. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' ES Setif win: 42% at kick-off, 35% now
  16. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was ES Setif win 35%)
  17. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' ES Setif win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  18. 45′SECOND HALF ES Setif 1–1 JS Kabylie
  19. 49′We said ES Setif at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–48–22
  20. 51′We said ES Setif at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
  21. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' ES Setif
  22. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' M. Omfia · ES Setif
  23. 62′We said ES Setif at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
  24. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' ES Setif win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  25. 71′We said ES Setif at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–67–14
  26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' ES Setif · On: I. Bouchagoura · Off: M. Belkhir
  27. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' JS Kabylie · On: A. Msanga · Off: A. Mahious
  28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' ES Setif · On: M. Boukerma · Off: M. Hamek
  29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' ES Setif · On: M. Zerrouki · Off: R. Benayad
  30. 77′We said ES Setif at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–11
  31. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' JS Kabylie
  32. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' ES Setif win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  33. 82′We said ES Setif at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
  34. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 76' N. El Abd · JS Kabylie
  35. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' JS Kabylie · On: M. Hamidi · Off: S. Benchamma
  36. 89′We said ES Setif at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
  37. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' ES Setif win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
  38. FTFULL TIME ES Setif 1–1 JS Kabylie
  39. FTES Setif 1–1 JS Kabylie · ES Setif win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on ES Setif v JS KabylieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:55 · locked at kick-off

ES Setif win42%
Draw30%
JS Kabylie win29%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

Line-ups

ES Setif

JS Kabylie

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ES Setif

JS Kabylie

6Days since last match5
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
7JS Kabylie316
10ES Setif424

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ES Setif

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Oukidja

7 M. Belkhir

8 M. Hamek

9 R. Benayad

10 L. Tabti

12 C. Lakehal

13 M. Omfia

19 A. Khemaissia

23 S. Bouteldja

26 R. Boumechra

29 M. Salifu

Coach · –

Substitutes

40 · Z. Trad

21 · A. Zenadji

36 · M. Sadaoui

3 · A. Naim

22 · D. Hassen Khodja

– · S. Akkal

20 · M. Zerrouki

17 · M. Boukerma

24 · I. Bouchagoura

JS Kabylie

Formation not confirmed

16 A. Guendouz

24 C. Boulkaboul

28 R. Benchaa

23 N. El Abd

26 A. Sadahine

25 S. Benchamma

8 A. Bada

10 B. Bouamama

11 L. Akhrib

9 B. Messaoudi

18 A. Mahious

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · S. Benrabah

17 · M. Hamidi

– · R. Bouaouiche

4 · M. Bott

13 · A. Abeid

14 · A. Msanga

15 · Y. Izem

27 · O. Malki

21 · A. Belhocini

Our number · es setif winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:55 · locked at kick-off
42% The market46%
Us42%
Market46%

We make ES Setif a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ES Setif v JS Kabylie1.17 – 0.92
Last six in Ligue 1W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 4 v 610 v 7
The market · ES Setif win46% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:1714 OCT 15:05
Our probability · es setif win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ES Setif win42%46%−5
Draw30%31%−1
JS Kabylie win29%22%+6
Over 2.5 goals35%35%−1
Both teams to score41%41%0
Over 1.5 goals62%60%+2
Over 3.5 goals16%18%−2
ES Setif or draw71%78%−6
ES Setif clean sheet40%––
JS Kabylie clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%
0123450 12.8 11.3 5.2 1 14.4 13.2 6.0 2 8.5 7.6 3.5 3 3.4 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ES Setif down, JS Kabylie across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsJSK 5–1 ESS · ESS 1–0 JSK · JSK 2–0 ESS · ESS 2–2 JSK

Form · last six in Ligue 1

ES SETIF

WWLLWD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 0–0

JS KABYLIE

WWDWLW5–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1CR Belouizdad5413
2MC Oran4410
3USM Alger5310
4MC Alger337
5CS Constantine517
6Ben Aknoun416
7JS Kabylie316
8MB Rouisset406
9Khenchela415
10ES Setif424
11Olympique Akbou4-14
12JS El Biar5-14
13Témouchent4-24
14ASO Chlef5-52
15JS Saoura4-52
16US Biskra5-62

The competition's standings.