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Model 1.2

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CS Constantine v JS El Biar

CS Constantine
2–4Full time
JS El Biar

Ligue 1 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
CS Constantine 2–4 JS El Biar CS CONSTANTINE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said CS Constantine win60%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.077
The market’s Brier score1.107

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CS Constantine win at 60%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: CS Constantine was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF CS Constantine v JS El Biar
  4. 2′JS El Biar score on 2′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 36–24–40
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' CS Constantine 0–1 JS El Biar
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' CS Constantine win: 60% at kick-off, 36% now
  7. 3′We said CS Constantine at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–1 · 35–24–41
  8. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' JS El Biar win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was CS Constantine win 35%)
  9. 6′We said CS Constantine at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–24–41
  10. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' CS Constantine win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
  11. 20′We said CS Constantine at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–26–45
  12. 27′A goal for JS El Biar on 27′. 0–1 · 27–27–47
  13. 28′We said CS Constantine at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–2 · 10–16–74
  14. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' CS Constantine 0–2 JS El Biar
  15. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' CS Constantine win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
  16. 31′We said CS Constantine at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–15–75
  17. 31′CS Constantine find the net on 31′. 0–2 · 9–15–75
  18. 32′We said CS Constantine at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–27–48
  19. 32′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 24–27–48
  20. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' CS Constantine 1–2 JS El Biar
  21. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' CS Constantine win: 60% at kick-off, 24% now
  22. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' JS El Biar
  23. 38′JS El Biar score on 38′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 8–14–78
  24. 38′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 8–14–78
  25. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' CS Constantine 1–3 JS El Biar
  26. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' CS Constantine win: 60% at kick-off, 8% now
  27. 45′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 1–4–94
  28. 45′HALF-TIME CS Constantine 1–4 JS El Biar
  29. 45′SECOND HALF CS Constantine 1–4 JS El Biar
  30. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' CS Constantine
  31. 48′JS El Biar find the net on 45′. 1–4. 1–4 · 1–4–95
  32. 48′We said CS Constantine at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–4 · 1–4–95
  33. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' CS Constantine 1–4 JS El Biar
  34. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' JS El Biar
  35. 50′6 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 4–12–84
  36. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' CS Constantine 2–4 JS El Biar
  37. 51′A goal for CS Constantine on 51′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 4–11–84
  38. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' CS Constantine
  39. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' CS Constantine · On: N. L'Ghoul · Off: D. Bizimana Corrected
  40. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' JS El Biar · On: S. Kermiche · Off: D. Mouaki
  41. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' JS El Biar
  42. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' JS El Biar · On: T. Tahar · Off: O. Chita
  43. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' CS Constantine win: 60% at kick-off, under 1% now
  44. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' JS El Biar
  45. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' CS Constantine
  46. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' CS Constantine
  47. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' JS El Biar · On: A. Oukil · Off: K. Aribi
  48. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' JS El Biar · On: O. Zeggai · Off: A. Mammeri
  49. FTFULL TIME CS Constantine 2–4 JS El Biar
  50. FTCS Constantine 2–4 JS El Biar · CS Constantine win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Constantine are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Constantine 60%, draw 22%, JS El Biar 18%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on CS Constantine v JS El BiarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

CS Constantine win60%
Draw22%
JS El Biar win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

Line-ups

CS Constantine

JS El Biar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Constantine

JS El Biar

5Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6CS Constantine5+17
12JS El Biar5−14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CS Constantine

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Bouhalfaya

12 O. Meddahi

27 A. Chikhi

25 M. Rebiai

24 R. Torach

14 D. Bizimana

8 H. Chekal Affari

11 M. Bakir

17 A. Lahmeri

18 K. Chaban

9 Y. Agbagno

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · A. Necir

2 · M. Belgourai

21 · M. Beneddine

5 · Y. Zeghad

6 · J. Atibu

7 · M. Bouzekri

15 · M. Berkane

26 · N. L'Ghoul

19 · H. Djaouchi

JS El Biar

Formation not confirmed

30 T. Moussaoui

5 B. Cisse

26 A. Mammeri

27 M. Guemroud

15 M. Bouchina

22 A. Kante

10 A. Bangoura

14 K. Aribi

6 F. Abdat

8 O. Chita

9 D. Mouaki

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · M. Reguieg

7 · S. Kermiche

11 · M. Kaddour

13 · I. Cissoko

16 · M. Aziria

17 · A. Oukil

20 · O. Zeggai

24 · H. Mellouk

29 · T. Tahar

Our number · cs constantine winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:29 · locked at kick-off
60% The market56%
Us60%
Market56%

We make CS Constantine a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · CS Constantine v JS El Biar1.96 – 0.94
Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 3 SeptW2 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L3
Table places · points 7 v 46 v 12
The market · CS Constantine win56% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0017 OCT 15:51
Our probability · CS Constantine win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
CS Constantine win60%56%+4
Draw22%28%−6
JS El Biar win18%16%+2
Over 2.5 goals54%40%+14
Both teams to score51%40%+11
Over 1.5 goals77%65%+12
Over 3.5 goals33%21%+12
CS Constantine or draw82%84%−2
CS Constantine clean sheet40%––
JS El Biar clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.9%
0123450 6.2 5.4 2.6 1 10.9 10.1 4.7 2 10.3 9.3 4.4 3 6.6 6.0 2.8 4 3.4 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+CS Constantine down, JS El Biar across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsCSC 1–1 JSE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 3 Sept

CS CONSTANTINE

DWLWL1–1 · 3–0 · 1–5 · 4–0 · 0–2

JS EL BIAR

LLWDL0–2 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1CR Belouizdad5+413
2MC Oran4+410
3USM Alger5+310
4MB Rouisset5+29
5MC Alger3+37
6CS Constantine5+17
7JS Kabylie4+17
8Olympique Akbou507
9Ben Aknoun506
10ES Setif5+25
11Khenchela4+15
12JS El Biar5−14
13Témouchent5−44
14ASO Chlef5−52
15JS Saoura4−52
16US Biskra5−62

The competition's standings before kick-off.