ASO Chlef v MC Alger prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:20

ASO Chlef 1–1 MC Alger MC ALGER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said MC Alger win~~39%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.695

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.763

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MC Alger win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: MC Alger 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 29–32–39
1′KICK-OFF ASO Chlef v MC Alger
4′🟨 YELLOW · 5' MC Alger
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' ASO Chlef 0–1 MC Alger
13′⚽ GOAL · 14' ASO Chlef 0–1 MC Alger
14′14′ and it is 0–1: MC Alger have scored. 0–1 · 8–20–72
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' MC Alger win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
15′We said MC Alger at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 8–20–72
21′🟨 YELLOW · 23' MC Alger
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 6–19–74
31′We said MC Alger at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′SECOND HALF ASO Chlef 0–1 MC Alger
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' MC Alger win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 54' MC Alger
54′We said MC Alger at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
58′⚽ GOAL · 60' ASO Chlef 0–1 MC Alger
59′ASO Chlef find the net on 60′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–16–81
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' ASO Chlef 1–1 MC Alger · Z. Ferhat
60′We said MC Alger at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 18–59–23
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' MC Alger win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was MC Alger win 23%)
67′We said MC Alger at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' MC Alger win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 58' MC Alger · On: M. Nduwumwe · Off: A. Abdellaoui
71′⚽ GOAL · 60' ASO Chlef 1–1 MC Alger · O. Diakite
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' ASO Chlef · On: K. Avotor · Off: M. Belaribi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' MC Alger · On: Z. Naidji · Off: M. Abdelkader
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' ASO Chlef · On: Y. Belaribi · Off: A. Hamdani
75′We said MC Alger at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 11–75–14
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' MC Alger win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
82′We said MC Alger at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 7–85–8
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' ASO Chlef
84′PENALTY MISSED · 85' MC Alger
85′A goal for MC Alger on 85′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 5–89–6
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' ASO Chlef
88′We said MC Alger at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
90′M. Bangoura scores for MC Alger on 86′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 3–94–3
91′🟥 RED CARD · 92' ASO Chlef
91′🟥 RED CARD · 91' ASO Chlef
92′ASO Chlef are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 2–96–2
92′🟥 RED CARD · 92' ASO Chlef
95′A red card for MC Alger on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 1–98–1
95′🟥 RED CARD · 97' MC Alger
97′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–1 · 1–98–1
97′🟥 RED CARD · 97' MC Alger
98′🟨 YELLOW · 99' MC Alger
FTFULL TIME ASO Chlef 1–1 MC Alger
FTASO Chlef 1–1 MC Alger · MC Alger win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

ASO Chlef win29%

Draw32%

MC Alger win39%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:45

Line-ups

ASO Chlef

MC Alger

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ASO Chlef

MC Alger

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	MC Alger	2	+3	6
16	ASO Chlef	4	−5	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ASO Chlef

Formation not confirmed

30 C. Rahmani

26 A. Debbari

13 S. Lamrani

3 O. Benattia

28 A. Hamdani

15 C. Bekkouche

12 I. Moussa

6 M. Belaribi

14 O. Diakite

2 A. Benchouya

22 E. Ledlum

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · A. Tergou

4 · Z. Abdelli

11 · Y. Belaribi

10 · I. Larbi

17 · S. Aiboud

27 · A. Feddal

25 · K. Avotor

29 · M. D. Bounoua

8 · M. Abboub

MC Alger

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Ramdane

20 M. Halaimia

19 A. Ghezala

5 A. Abdellaoui

12 M. Zougrana

8 Z. Ferhat

28 O. Benhaoua

21 M. Abdelkader

17 C. Boukholda

22 S. Konate

18 M. Bangoura

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · Y. Gourari Tebaa

7 · S. Bayazid

23 · M. Mehdaoui

2 · Y. Gassi

10 · A. Azaizeh

24 · Z. Naidji

4 · A. Satta

11 · M. Nduwumwe

27 · A. Menezla

Our number · mc alger winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

39% The market49%

Us39%

~~Market~~49%

We make MC Alger a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mc alger win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASO Chlef win	29%	20%	+9
Draw	32%	31%	+2
MC Alger win	39%	49%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	29%	35%	−7
Both teams to score	36%	40%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	12%	19%	−7
ASO Chlef or draw	61%	51%	+10
ASO Chlef clean sheet	36%	–	–
MC Alger clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.8%

0123450 15.8 15.7 8.1 2.8 1 12.8 13.2 6.7 2.3 2 5.5 5.5 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ASO Chlef down, MC Alger across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,297 Ligue 1 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.0% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASO Chlef at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). MC Alger away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for ASO Chlef, 1.03 for MC Alger. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MCA 2–0 ASO · ASO 0–0 MCA · ASO 0–0 MCA · MCA 0–0 ASO

Form · last six in Ligue 1

ASO CHLEF

LLDLLL1–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

MC ALGER

WDLWWW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CR Belouizdad	5	+4	13
2	MC Oran	3	+3	7
3	USM Alger	4	+2	7
4	CS Constantine	5	+1	7
5	MC Alger	2	+3	6
6	Ben Aknoun	4	+1	6
7	JS Kabylie	3	+1	6
8	MB Rouisset	4	0	6
9	Khenchela	4	+1	5
10	ES Setif	4	+2	4
11	JS El Biar	5	−1	4
12	Olympique Akbou	4	−1	4
13	Témouchent	4	−2	4
14	JS Saoura	3	−4	2
15	US Biskra	4	−5	2
16	ASO Chlef	4	−5	1