ASO Chlef v MB Rouisset prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

ASO Chlef 1–1 MB Rouisset ASO CHLEF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ASO Chlef win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.747

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.751

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ASO Chlef win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: ASO Chlef 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–25
1′KICK-OFF ASO Chlef v MB Rouisset
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' ASO Chlef
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was ASO Chlef win 38%)
36′ASO Chlef find the net on 36′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
36′We said ASO Chlef at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' ASO Chlef 1–0 MB Rouisset
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' ASO Chlef win: 44% at kick-off, 78% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' ASO Chlef win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 41%)
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′HALF-TIME ASO Chlef 1–0 MB Rouisset
46′SECOND HALF ASO Chlef 1–0 MB Rouisset
48′We said ASO Chlef at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' ASO Chlef
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' MB Rouisset
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' ASO Chlef win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
65′We said ASO Chlef at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
76′We said ASO Chlef at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' MB Rouisset · On: A. K. Amqran · Off: N. Ben Kheira
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' MB Rouisset · On: H. Fatawu · Off: M. Benzaid
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' ASO Chlef win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We said ASO Chlef at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′SUBSTITUTION · 89' ASO Chlef · On: D. Belalem · Off: I. Moussa
95′A goal for MB Rouisset on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 1–98–1
95′We said ASO Chlef at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–1 · 1–98–1
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' ASO Chlef 1–1 MB Rouisset
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+5' ASO Chlef win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was ASO Chlef win 99%)
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' MB Rouisset
FTFULL TIME ASO Chlef 1–1 MB Rouisset
FTASO Chlef 1–1 MB Rouisset · ASO Chlef win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASO Chlef are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ASO Chlef 44%, draw 30%, MB Rouisset 26%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on ASO Chlef v MB RouissetBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

ASO Chlef win44%

Draw30%

MB Rouisset win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASO Chlef

MB Rouisset

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	MB Rouisset	6	+3	12
14	ASO Chlef	6	−5	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aso chlef winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make ASO Chlef a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ASO Chlef v MB Rouisset~~1.20 – 0.83

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 12~~14 v 3

~~The market · ASO Chlef win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ASO Chlef win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASO Chlef win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	30%	30%	0
MB Rouisset win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Both teams to score	39%	42%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	60%	61%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	15%	18%	−3
ASO Chlef or draw	74%	77%	−3
ASO Chlef clean sheet	44%	–	–
MB Rouisset clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%

0123450 13.6 10.8 4.6 1 15.5 13.0 5.4 2 9.3 7.7 3.2 3 3.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ASO Chlef down, MB Rouisset across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,310 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASO Chlef at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). MB Rouisset away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for ASO Chlef, 0.83 for MB Rouisset. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MBR 1–1 ASO · ASO 1–1 MBR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 Sept

ASO CHLEF

DLLLDD3–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

MB ROUISSET

LWLWWW0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MC Oran	6	+5	14
2	CR Belouizdad	5	+4	13
3	MB Rouisset	6	+3	12
4	JS Kabylie	5	+4	10
5	USM Alger	5	+3	10
6	Olympique Akbou	6	+3	10
7	JS El Biar	7	+1	8
8	MC Alger	3	+3	7
9	CS Constantine	7	−4	7
10	Ben Aknoun	5	0	6
11	ES Setif	5	+2	5
12	Khenchela	5	0	5
13	Témouchent	6	−4	5
14	ASO Chlef	6	−5	3
15	JS Saoura	5	−6	2
16	US Biskra	6	−9	2