ASO Chlef v ES Setif prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ASO ChlefDrawES Setif

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:45

Before kick-off · Match result · ASO Chlef 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASO Chlef are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ASO Chlef 44%, draw 30%, ES Setif 26%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on ASO Chlef v ES SetifBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

ASO Chlef win44%

Draw30%

ES Setif win26%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASO Chlef

ES Setif

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	ES Setif	6	+1	5
14	ASO Chlef	7	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aso chlef winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make ASO Chlef a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ASO Chlef v ES Setif~~1.20 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 3 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 5~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASO Chlef win	44%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
ES Setif win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
ASO Chlef or draw	74%	–	–
ASO Chlef clean sheet	43%	–	–
ES Setif clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%

0123450 13.4 10.6 4.7 1 15.0 13.2 5.5 2 9.2 7.7 3.3 3 3.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ASO Chlef down, ES Setif across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,315 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.7% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASO Chlef at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). ES Setif away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for ASO Chlef, 0.85 for ES Setif. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ASO 1–0 ESS · ESS 1–1 ASO · ASO 0–1 ESS · ESS 1–0 ASO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 3 Sept

ASO CHLEF

LLLDDD0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

ES SETIF

LLWDDL0–1 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MC Oran	6	+5	14
2	CR Belouizdad	6	+4	14
3	JS Kabylie	6	+7	13
4	MB Rouisset	7	+3	13
5	USM Alger	6	+3	11
6	Olympique Akbou	6	+3	10
7	JS El Biar	7	+1	8
8	Témouchent	7	−3	8
9	MC Alger	3	+3	7
10	Ben Aknoun	6	0	7
11	CS Constantine	7	−4	7
12	ES Setif	6	+1	5
13	Khenchela	6	−3	5
14	ASO Chlef	7	−5	4
15	JS Saoura	6	−6	3
16	US Biskra	6	−9	2