Vora v Partizani prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Vora 4–1 Partizani VORA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vora win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.580

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.500

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vora win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vora was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Vora v Partizani
16′We published Vora at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–12
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Vora 1–0 Partizani
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Vora win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
17′A goal for Vora on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–12
26′We published Vora at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–9
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Vora
45′SECOND HALF Vora 1–0 Partizani
46′HALF-TIME Vora 1–0 Partizani
49′We published Vora at 38%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Vora 2–0 Partizani
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Vora win: 38% at kick-off, 94% now
50′Vora score on 50′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
52′We published Vora at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
62′We published Vora at 38%. Our model now makes it 78%. 2–1 · 78–18–4
62′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 78–18–4
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Vora 2–1 Partizani
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Vora win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
63′Partizani find the net on 62′. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
65′We published Vora at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
72′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Vora 3–1 Partizani
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Vora win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
73′A goal for Vora on 73′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Partizani
82′We published Vora at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
82′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Vora 4–1 Partizani
83′Vora score on 82′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Partizani
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Vora
86′GOAL DISALLOWED · 86' Vora
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Vora
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Partizani
91′Vora score on 90′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Vora 4–1 Partizani
96′Full time, 4–1. We called Vora at 38% — that one lands. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Vora 4–1 Partizani
FTVora 4–1 Partizani · Vora win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vora are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vora 38%, draw 29%, Partizani 33%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Vora v PartizaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vora win38%

Draw29%

Partizani win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueVora Stadium

Line-ups

Vora

Partizani

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vora

Partizani

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

Last match: 11 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Vora	6	−7	5
10	Partizani	6	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vora

Formation not confirmed

55 R. Harizaj

2 H. Zuna

33 D. Shehi

6 C. Shiba

14 J. Vrapi

18 K. Dalipi

21 L. Frroku

10 K. Kashari

77 B. Gjyla

9 Pedro Clemente

7 B. Karrica

Coach · Arjan Bellaj

Substitutes

23 · S. Ruci

4 · E. Asllanaj

5 · R. Marinaj

8 · F. Hasaj

11 · D. Trajkov

13 · O. Ruci

17 · M. Kovaci

22 · E. Mihana

24 · D. Daka

27 · M. Barjamaj

29 · K. Halabaku

99 · K. Dionellis

Partizani

Formation not confirmed

60 P. Qirko

3 D. Atanaskoski

97 O. Pasagic

4 A. Janjeva

22 A. Marku

21 V. Murataj

18 R. Human

5 A. Doumbia

8 R. Ismaili

14 E. Himallari

24 A. Bintsouka

Coach · –

Substitutes

40 · S. Tahri

2 · M. Kola

6 · B. Jatta

9 · A. Keko

19 · D. Vata

25 · R. Toma

26 · P. Buxhelaj

33 · D. Fadairo

39 · K. Ogunleye

51 · S. Sidibe

70 · S. Spahiu

Our number · vora winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Vora a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vora v Partizani~~1.25 – 1.14

~~Form · Superliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~9 v 10

~~The market · Vora win~~42% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vora win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vora win	38%	42%	−4
Draw	29%	29%	0
Partizani win	33%	29%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	46%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Vora or draw	67%	71%	−4
Vora clean sheet	32%	–	–
Partizani clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.2 9.6 6.0 2.3 1 10.5 13.8 7.4 2.8 2 7.1 8.0 4.6 3 3.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vora down, Partizani across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 954 Superliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vora at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Partizani away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Vora, 1.14 for Partizani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VOR 2–2 PAR · PAR 0–1 VOR · VOR 0–0 PAR · PAR 1–0 VOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Superliga this season · since 22 Aug

VORA

WLLLDD1–0 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

PARTIZANI

DLWLLL0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	6	+8	15
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	7	+2	11
5	AF Elbasani	7	−1	7
6	Laci	7	−4	7
7	Skenderbeu Korce	7	−3	6
8	Vllaznia Shkodër	6	−4	5
9	Vora	6	−7	5
10	Partizani	6	−5	4