Vllaznia Shkodër v Tirana prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Vllaznia Shkodër 2–0 Tirana VLLAZNIA SHKODËR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vllaznia Shkodër win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vllaznia Shkodër win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vllaznia Shkodër 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
1′KICK-OFF Vllaznia Shkodër v Tirana
38′Vllaznia Shkodër find the net on 38′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Vllaznia Shkodër 1–0 Tirana
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
39′We said Vllaznia Shkodër at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
39′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
42′We said Vllaznia Shkodër at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Vllaznia Shkodër 1–0 Tirana
46′Vllaznia Shkodër ahead on 42′ through E. Murataj. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
46′SECOND HALF Vllaznia Shkodër 1–0 Tirana
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vllaznia Shkodër · On: E. Tafili · Off: S. Bizi
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tirana · On: E. Daci · Off: A. Bami
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Tirana
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Tirana
61′We said Vllaznia Shkodër at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
69′A goal for Vllaznia Shkodër on 68′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′We said Vllaznia Shkodër at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Vllaznia Shkodër 2–0 Tirana
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tirana · On: D. Hazrollaj · Off: P. Myslovic
81′We said Vllaznia Shkodër at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tirana · On: T. Kis · Off: R. Xhixha
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Vllaznia Shkodër · On: H. Marku · Off: C. Dros
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Vllaznia Shkodër
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Vllaznia Shkodër · On: L. Kastrati · Off: E. Murataj
FTFULL TIME Vllaznia Shkodër 2–0 Tirana
FTVllaznia Shkodër 2–0 Tirana · Vllaznia Shkodër win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vllaznia Shkodër are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vllaznia Shkodër 43%, draw 29%, Tirana 29%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Vllaznia Shkodër v TiranaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vllaznia Shkodër win43%

Draw29%

Tirana win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueLoro Borici Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vllaznia Shkodër

Tirana

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

Last match: 17 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tirana	7	+2	11
9	Vllaznia Shkodër	7	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vllaznia shkodër winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Vllaznia Shkodër a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vllaznia Shkodër v Tirana~~1.38 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~9 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vllaznia Shkodër win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Tirana win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Vllaznia Shkodër or draw	71%	–	–
Vllaznia Shkodër clean sheet	34%	–	–
Tirana clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.5 8.3 5.0 1 10.7 13.4 6.9 2.5 2 8.0 8.6 4.7 3 3.7 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vllaznia Shkodër down, Tirana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 956 Superliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vllaznia Shkodër at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tirana away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Vllaznia Shkodër, 1.10 for Tirana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIR 1–0 VLL · VLL 3–1 TIR · TIR 1–1 VLL · VLL 3–1 TIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 29 Aug

VLLAZNIA SHKODËR

DLLLWL1–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–3

TIRANA

LWDDWW1–3 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	7	+10	18
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	7	+2	11
5	Laci	8	−3	10
6	Skenderbeu Korce	8	−1	9
7	Vora	8	−5	8
8	AF Elbasani	7	−1	7
9	Vllaznia Shkodër	7	−6	5
10	Partizani	8	−10	4