Vllaznia Shkodër v Dinamo Tirana prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Vllaznia Shkodër 1–0 Dinamo Tirana VLLAZNIA SHKODËR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vllaznia Shkodër win~~40%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.537

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vllaznia Shkodër win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vllaznia Shkodër 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
2′Little has changed for our model: Vllaznia Shkodër 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–31
41′31′ and it is 1–0: E. Murataj on the scoresheet for Vllaznia Shkodër. 1–0 · 74–20–6
45′31′ and it is 1–0: E. Murataj on the scoresheet for Vllaznia Shkodër. 1–0 · 75–19–6
53′We said Vllaznia Shkodër at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
57′We said Vllaznia Shkodër at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
78′We said Vllaznia Shkodër at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Vllaznia Shkodër
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Dinamo Tirana
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Vllaznia Shkodër win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
FTFULL TIME Vllaznia Shkodër 1–0 Dinamo Tirana
FTVllaznia Shkodër 1–0 Dinamo Tirana · Vllaznia Shkodër win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vllaznia Shkodër win40%

Draw30%

Dinamo Tirana win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueLoro Borici Stadium

Line-ups

Vllaznia Shkodër

Dinamo Tirana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vllaznia Shkodër

Dinamo Tirana

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Dinamo Tirana	5	+5	12
10	Vllaznia Shkodër	5	−5	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vllaznia Shkodër

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Jukaj

33 X. Avduli

29 E. Musta

2 E. Gurishta

14 P. Bardhi

17 A. Mehmeti

6 C. Dros

25 K. Qato

9 B. Balaj

11 E. Murataj

66 S. Uldedaj

Coach · Eduard Martini

Substitutes

19 · A. Ara

12 · C. Avram

22 · S. Bizi

18 · R. Dwumfour

27 · G. Kubazi

5 · F. Latifi

21 · H. Marku

15 · E. O. Nwokporo

3 · G. Pusi

90 · D. Perez

40 · E. Tafili

45 · M. Tounkara

Dinamo Tirana

Formation not confirmed

77 A. Teqja

2 U. Ismaili

27 N. Aliji

6 A. Alhassan

47 Lorran

21 K. Qefalija

3 S. Meta

10 L. Vila

20 M. Ayodeji

29 H. Berisha

11 R. Silva-Richards

Coach · Ilir Daja

Substitutes

16 · N. Bleta

24 · F. Farruku

8 · B. Goudiaby

45 · B. Aniekan James

97 · T. Kiri

28 · I. Manellari

19 · I. Mustapha

44 · J. Ochiche

– · E. Qardaku

18 · T. Nani

88 · F. Ruci

1 · E. Sali

Our number · vllaznia shkodër winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market27%

Us40%

~~Market~~27%

We make Vllaznia Shkodër a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vllaznia shkodër win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vllaznia Shkodër win	40%	27%	+13
Draw	30%	29%	+2
Dinamo Tirana win	30%	44%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	68%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Vllaznia Shkodër or draw	70%	56%	+14
Vllaznia Shkodër clean sheet	35%	–	–
Dinamo Tirana clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.2 9.4 5.5 1 11.5 14.0 6.8 2.4 2 7.9 8.1 4.3 3 3.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vllaznia Shkodër down, Dinamo Tirana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 948 Superliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 2.39 goals a meeting; 8 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vllaznia Shkodër at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Tirana away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Vllaznia Shkodër, 1.05 for Dinamo Tirana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.39

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 18

~~Both scored~~8 of 18

~~Last meetings~~VLL 0–2 DIN · VLL 0–0 DIN · DIN 0–2 VLL · VLL 1–0 DIN

Form · last six in Superliga

VLLAZNIA SHKODËR

LDDLLL1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–2

DINAMO TIRANA

LLWWWW0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	6	+10	16
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	5	+6	12
3	Dinamo Tirana	5	+5	12
4	AF Elbasani	6	0	7
5	Laci	5	−1	7
6	Tirana	5	−1	5
7	Vora	6	−7	5
8	Partizani	5	−3	4
9	Skenderbeu Korce	6	−4	3
10	Vllaznia Shkodër	5	−5	2