Tirana v Laci prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Tirana 1–0 Laci TIRANA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tirana win~~44%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.468

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.378

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tirana win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tirana was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
1′KICK-OFF Tirana v Laci
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Tirana win 35%)
45′SECOND HALF Tirana 0–0 Laci
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Tirana win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
46′HALF-TIME Tirana 0–0 Laci
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tirana · On: P. Myslovic · Off: O. Qerimaj
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Laci · On: S. Kalaj · Off: A. Traore
52′We said Tirana at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–46–22
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Laci
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–48–21
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Laci
58′We said Tirana at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
63′We published Tirana at 44%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
63′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Tirana
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Tirana 1–0 Laci
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Tirana win: 44% at kick-off, 81% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Tirana win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
64′Tirana find the net on 64′. 0–0 · 26–56–18
64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Tirana
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Tirana win: 44% at kick-off, 26% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Tirana win 26%)
67′We said Tirana at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Tirana win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Tirana 1–0 Laci
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Tirana win: 44% at kick-off, 83% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Tirana win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
69′Tirana find the net on 69′. 0–0 · 23–61–16
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Tirana win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
69′GOAL DISALLOWED · 69' Tirana
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Tirana win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Tirana win 23%)
74′We said Tirana at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–14
77′We published Tirana at 44%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–11–1
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Tirana 1–0 Laci
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Tirana win: 44% at kick-off, 88% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Tirana win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
78′Tirana score on 78′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–1
79′We published Tirana at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′We published Tirana at 44%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Laci · On: A. U. Muhammad · Off: K. Ajazi
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Tirana 2–0 Laci
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Tirana win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We published Tirana at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′A goal for Tirana on 81′. 1–0 · 91–8–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Tirana · On: E. Daci · Off: D. Hazrollaj
81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' Tirana
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Tirana
88′🟨 YELLOW · 74' A. Krymi · Tirana
94′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Tirana · On: E. Tare · Off: T. Kis
94′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Laci · On: J. Latifaj · Off: H. Tola
95′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Laci · On: M. Aderibigbe · Off: S. Bibo
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Tirana · On: A. Bami · Off: B. Berisha
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Tirana · On: E. Meta · Off: F. Alvarez
FTFULL TIME Tirana 1–0 Laci
FTTirana 1–0 Laci · Tirana win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tirana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tirana 44%, draw 29%, Laci 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Tirana v LaciBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tirana win44%

Draw29%

Laci win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueArena Kombetare

Line-ups

Tirana

Laci

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tirana

Laci

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tirana	6	+1	8
6	Laci	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tirana

Formation not confirmed

97 V. Bekaj

3 B. Ndong

5 J. Colley

6 A. Krymi

9 T. Kis

10 F. Alvarez

22 O. Qerimaj

23 B. Berisha

27 D. Hazrollaj

55 B. Ilievski

95 P. Stanic

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · K. Kuka

96 · K. Hasani

7 · P. Myslovic

8 · S. Vogli

11 · E. Daci

15 · L. Vitija

17 · E. Tare

20 · A. Bami

28 · M. Maci

31 · H. H. Fresneda

33 · E. Meta

Laci

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Biba

2 F. Azizi

5 A. Kurti

8 O. Cena

11 H. Tola

16 S. Bibo

19 K. Ajazi

23 G. Gamarra

30 A. Traore

31 H. Nerguti

33 E. Stafa

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · S. Nikolli

7 · M. Aderibigbe

14 · A. U. Muhammad

17 · E. Samuel

44 · J. Latifaj

55 · E. Ndubuisi

80 · S. Kalaj

18 · L. Veseli

99 · E. Pojana

Our number · tirana winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

44% The market50%

Us44%

~~Market~~50%

We make Tirana a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tirana v Laci~~1.41 – 1.05

~~Form · Superliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~4 v 6

~~The market · Tirana win~~50% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tirana win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tirana win	44%	50%	−6
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Laci win	27%	23%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	44%	46%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−3
Tirana or draw	73%	77%	−4
Tirana clean sheet	35%	–	–
Laci clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.8 8.1 4.7 1 11.1 13.4 6.5 2.3 2 8.5 8.7 4.6 3 4.0 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tirana down, Laci across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 952 Superliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tirana at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Laci away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Tirana, 1.05 for Laci. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIR 4–1 LAC · LAC 3–1 TIR · TIR 1–1 LAC · LAC 0–0 TIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Superliga this season · since 22 Aug

TIRANA

LLWDDW0–3 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

LACI

DWLWLL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	6	+8	15
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	6	+1	8
5	AF Elbasani	6	0	7
6	Laci	6	−3	7
7	Vllaznia Shkodër	6	−4	5
8	Vora	6	−7	5
9	Partizani	6	−5	4
10	Skenderbeu Korce	6	−4	3