Tirana v Dinamo Tirana prediction · Superliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TiranaDrawDinamo Tirana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tirana 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tirana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tirana 41%, draw 28%, Dinamo Tirana 30%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Tirana v Dinamo TiranaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tirana win41%

Draw28%

Dinamo Tirana win30%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueArena Kombetare

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tirana

Dinamo Tirana

4Days since last match12

Last match: 24 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

Last match: 16 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	7	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tirana winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Tirana a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tirana v Dinamo Tirana~~1.39 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tirana win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Dinamo Tirana win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Tirana or draw	70%	–	–
Tirana clean sheet	32%	–	–
Dinamo Tirana clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.0 8.3 5.2 2.0 1 10.1 13.3 7.1 2.8 2 7.6 8.6 4.9 3 3.5 4.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tirana down, Dinamo Tirana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 956 Superliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tirana at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Tirana away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Tirana, 1.15 for Dinamo Tirana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–1 TIR · DIN 2–0 TIR · TIR 0–2 DIN · TIR 1–1 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 31 Aug

TIRANA

WDDWWL4–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

DINAMO TIRANA

WWWWLL1–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	7	+10	18
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	7	+2	11
5	Laci	8	−3	10
6	Skenderbeu Korce	8	−1	9
7	Vora	8	−5	8
8	AF Elbasani	7	−1	7
9	Vllaznia Shkodër	7	−6	5
10	Partizani	8	−10	4