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Teuta Durrës v Skenderbeu Korce

Teuta Durrës

2–0Full time

Skenderbeu Korce

Superliga · SAT 10 OCT · Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Teuta Durrës 2–0 Skenderbeu Korce TEUTA DURRËS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Teuta Durrës win~~43%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.248

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Teuta Durrës win at 43%.
0′Much as we predicted: Teuta Durrës was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
3′Much as we predicted: Teuta Durrës was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–26
23′S. Kallaku scores for Teuta Durrës on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
25′S. Kallaku scores for Teuta Durrës on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 43% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Teuta Durrës 2–0 Skenderbeu Korce · S. Kallaku
30′⚽ GOAL · 31' Teuta Durrës 2–0 Skenderbeu Korce
34′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Skenderbeu Korce
41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Teuta Durrës
43′32′ and it is 2–0: P. Martelo on the scoresheet for Teuta Durrës. 2–0 · 96–4–1
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
45′SECOND HALF Teuta Durrës 2–0 Skenderbeu Korce
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Skenderbeu Korce · On: Victor Braga · Off: S. Nasr
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Skenderbeu Korce · On: L. Lleshi · Off: A. Diallo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Skenderbeu Korce · On: K. Shaqe · Off: K. Grazhdani
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
47′32′ and it is 2–0: P. Martelo on the scoresheet for Teuta Durrës. 2–0 · 96–3–1
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Skenderbeu Korce · On: E. Zenullari · Off: G. Lagonidis
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Teuta Durrës win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Teuta Durrës 2–1 Skenderbeu Korce · P. Martelo
59′PENALTY MISSED · 60' Skenderbeu Korce
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Teuta Durrës 2–1 Skenderbeu Korce
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Teuta Durrës 2–1 Skenderbeu Korce · E. Zenullari
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Teuta Durrës · On: M. A. Umejiego · Off: P. Martelo
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Teuta Durrës
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Teuta Durrës
73′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Teuta Durrës
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Skenderbeu Korce
76′🟥 RED CARD · 74' M. Boci · Teuta Durrës
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' O. Drame · Skenderbeu Korce
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Skenderbeu Korce · On: N. Velichkovski · Off: K. Vangjeli
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Teuta Durrës · On: F. Pergjoni · Off: E. Mala
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Teuta Durrës · On: G. Bajrami · Off: S. Kallaku
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Teuta Durrës · On: I. Kukleci · Off: A. Jazxhi
FTFULL TIME Teuta Durrës 2–0 Skenderbeu Korce
FTTeuta Durrës 2–0 Skenderbeu Korce · Teuta Durrës win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Teuta Durrës win43%

Draw32%

Skenderbeu Korce win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Stadiumi Niko Dovana

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Teuta Durrës

Formation not confirmed

30 P. Bernardoni

77 A. Toli

4 A. Jazxhi

3 V. Zogos

44 A. Fangaj

11 M. Boci

8 X. Macolli

59 E. Arifi

20 E. Mala

10 S. Kallaku

9 P. Martelo

Coach · Bledar Hodo

Substitutes

73 · Maycon

12 · E. Vata

18 · F. Pergjoni

5 · I. Kukleci

6 · G. Bajrami

70 · X. Trifoni

13 · S. Huna

16 · G. Kuqi

7 · K. Daci

99 · M. A. Umejiego

14 · J. Tetova

Skenderbeu Korce

Formation not confirmed

71 M. Alia

4 G. Lagonidis

10 S. Nasr

11 A. Diallo

17 B. Charles

21 K. Vangjeli

25 D. Janaqi

26 O. Drame

27 K. Grazhdani

28 B. Musa

97 A. Seydi

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · I. Dobjani

2 · R. Kurti

3 · L. Lleshi

5 · Victor Braga

6 · K. Kaceli

7 · D. Moussavou

8 · E. Totre

23 · M. Doda

32 · E. Zenullari

67 · D. Jahiji

77 · K. Shaqe

9 · N. Velichkovski

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Teuta Durrës

Formation not confirmed

30 P. Bernardoni

77 A. Toli

4 A. Jazxhi

3 V. Zogos

44 A. Fangaj

11 M. Boci

8 X. Macolli

59 E. Arifi

20 E. Mala

10 S. Kallaku

9 P. Martelo

Coach · Bledar Hodo

Substitutes

73 · Maycon

12 · E. Vata

18 · F. Pergjoni

5 · I. Kukleci

6 · G. Bajrami

70 · X. Trifoni

13 · S. Huna

16 · G. Kuqi

7 · K. Daci

99 · M. A. Umejiego

14 · J. Tetova

Skenderbeu Korce

Formation not confirmed

71 M. Alia

4 G. Lagonidis

10 S. Nasr

11 A. Diallo

17 B. Charles

21 K. Vangjeli

25 D. Janaqi

26 O. Drame

27 K. Grazhdani

28 B. Musa

97 A. Seydi

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · I. Dobjani

2 · R. Kurti

3 · L. Lleshi

5 · Victor Braga

6 · K. Kaceli

7 · D. Moussavou

8 · E. Totre

23 · M. Doda

32 · E. Zenullari

67 · D. Jahiji

77 · K. Shaqe

9 · N. Velichkovski

Our number · teuta durrës winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

43% The market60%

Us43%

~~Market~~60%

We make Teuta Durrës a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · teuta durrës win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Teuta Durrës win	43%	60%	−17
Draw	32%	25%	+7
Skenderbeu Korce win	25%	15%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	32%	44%	−12
Both teams to score	39%	43%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	60%	69%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	14%	23%	−9
Teuta Durrës or draw	75%	85%	−10
Teuta Durrës clean sheet	44%	–	–
Skenderbeu Korce clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.8 10.3 4.7 1 14.8 13.9 5.4 2 9.2 7.5 3.1 3 3.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Teuta Durrës down, Skenderbeu Korce across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 946 Superliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.08 goals a meeting; 5 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Teuta Durrës at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Skenderbeu Korce away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Teuta Durrës, 0.83 for Skenderbeu Korce. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.08

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 12

~~Both scored~~5 of 12

~~Last meetings~~TEU 1–0 SKE · SKE 2–1 TEU · TEU 1–1 SKE · SKE 2–3 TEU

Form · last six in Superliga

TEUTA DURRËS

WDWWWW1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

SKENDERBEU KORCE

LDLLDD1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	5	+8	13
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	5	+6	12
3	Dinamo Tirana	5	+5	12
4	Laci	5	−1	7
5	AF Elbasani	5	0	6
6	Tirana	5	−1	5
7	Partizani	5	−3	4
8	Vora	5	−7	4
9	Skenderbeu Korce	5	−2	3
10	Vllaznia Shkodër	5	−5	2