Teuta Durrës v AF Elbasani prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Teuta Durrës 0–0 AF Elbasani TEUTA DURRËS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Teuta Durrës win~~40%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.721

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.943

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Teuta Durrës win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Teuta Durrës v AF Elbasani
2′Much as we predicted: Teuta Durrës was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' AF Elbasani
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Teuta Durrës win 37%)
45′SECOND HALF Teuta Durrës 0–0 AF Elbasani
46′HALF-TIME Teuta Durrës 0–0 AF Elbasani
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Teuta Durrës win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
53′We said Teuta Durrës at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–50–22
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' AF Elbasani
62′We said Teuta Durrës at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' AF Elbasani · On: I. Ifeanyi · Off: F. Antovski
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' AF Elbasani · On: R. Hebaj · Off: A. Nikaj
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Teuta Durrës win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
70′We said Teuta Durrës at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–15
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Teuta Durrës · On: M. A. Umejiego · Off: P. Martelo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Teuta Durrës · On: M. Boci · Off: E. Arifi
77′We said Teuta Durrës at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Teuta Durrës
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' AF Elbasani
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Teuta Durrës win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
82′We said Teuta Durrës at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–7
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' AF Elbasani · On: M. Wague · Off: B. Lila
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' AF Elbasani · On: A. Deliu · Off: A. Borici
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Teuta Durrës · On: K. Daci · Off: E. Mala
90′We said Teuta Durrës at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
94′Full time, 0–0. We called Teuta Durrës at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Teuta Durrës 0–0 AF Elbasani
FTTeuta Durrës 0–0 AF Elbasani · Teuta Durrës win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Teuta Durrës are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Teuta Durrës 40%, draw 31%, AF Elbasani 29%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Teuta Durrës v AF ElbasaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Teuta Durrës win40%

Draw31%

AF Elbasani win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStadiumi Niko Dovana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Teuta Durrës

AF Elbasani

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

Last match: 17 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · teuta durrës winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market58%

Us40%

~~Market~~58%

We make Teuta Durrës a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Teuta Durrës v AF Elbasani~~1.20 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 7~~1 v 8

~~The market · Teuta Durrës win~~58% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Teuta Durrës win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Teuta Durrës win	40%	58%	−18
Draw	31%	24%	+7
AF Elbasani win	29%	17%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	37%	49%	−12
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	64%	72%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	29%	−11
Teuta Durrës or draw	71%	83%	−12
Teuta Durrës clean sheet	38%	–	–
AF Elbasani clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.6 10.2 5.4 1 12.7 14.0 6.4 2.1 2 8.2 7.8 3.8 3 3.3 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Teuta Durrës down, AF Elbasani across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 956 Superliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Teuta Durrës at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). AF Elbasani away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Teuta Durrës, 0.97 for AF Elbasani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~TEU 1–2 AFE · AFE 2–1 TEU · TEU 0–0 AFE · AFE 0–0 TEU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 29 Aug

TEUTA DURRËS

WWWWWW3–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

AF ELBASANI

DLWDDL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	7	+10	18
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	7	+2	11
5	Laci	8	−3	10
6	Skenderbeu Korce	8	−1	9
7	Vora	8	−5	8
8	AF Elbasani	7	−1	7
9	Vllaznia Shkodër	7	−6	5
10	Partizani	8	−10	4