Skenderbeu Korce v AF Elbasani prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Skenderbeu Korce 2–1 AF Elbasani AF ELBASANI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AF Elbasani win~~36%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.658

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.763

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AF Elbasani win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AF Elbasani 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
1′KICK-OFF Skenderbeu Korce v AF Elbasani
7′Little has changed for our model: AF Elbasani 36% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 33–31–35
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' AF Elbasani
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was AF Elbasani win 32%)
40′We said AF Elbasani at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 8–21–71
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Skenderbeu Korce 0–1 AF Elbasani
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' AF Elbasani win: 36% at kick-off, 71% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' AF Elbasani win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
41′AF Elbasani find the net on 41′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
45′SECOND HALF Skenderbeu Korce 1–1 AF Elbasani
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Skenderbeu Korce 1–1 AF Elbasani
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' AF Elbasani win: 36% at kick-off, 29% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was AF Elbasani win 29%)
47′A goal for Skenderbeu Korce on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–43–29
47′HALF-TIME Skenderbeu Korce 1–1 AF Elbasani
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Skenderbeu Korce · On: K. Vangjeli · Off: K. Kaceli
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' AF Elbasani win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Skenderbeu Korce
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Skenderbeu Korce
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' AF Elbasani
59′We said AF Elbasani at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–53–24
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Skenderbeu Korce
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' AF Elbasani · On: E. Lukoki Mateso · Off: R. Hebaj
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Skenderbeu Korce
69′We said AF Elbasani at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' AF Elbasani win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Skenderbeu Korce · On: S. Nasr · Off: B. Musa
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Skenderbeu Korce · On: Victor Braga · Off: D. Janaqi
76′We said AF Elbasani at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
76′We said AF Elbasani at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 86–13–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' AF Elbasani · On: A. Deliu · Off: A. Ibrahim
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Skenderbeu Korce 2–1 AF Elbasani
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' AF Elbasani win: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Skenderbeu Korce win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
77′Skenderbeu Korce score on 77′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Skenderbeu Korce
88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Skenderbeu Korce · On: A. Diallo · Off: E. Totre
88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Skenderbeu Korce · On: N. Velichkovski · Off: B. Charles
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AF Elbasani · On: I. Ifeanyi · Off: F. Antovski
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AF Elbasani · On: M. Wague · Off: K. Lleshi
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AF Elbasani · On: B. Gjeli · Off: A. Nikaj
94′2–1 at the end. Our 36% on AF Elbasani misses, and the record keeps it. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Skenderbeu Korce 2–1 AF Elbasani
FTSkenderbeu Korce 2–1 AF Elbasani · AF Elbasani win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AF Elbasani just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Skenderbeu Korce 34%, draw 30%, AF Elbasani 36%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Skenderbeu Korce v AF ElbasaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skenderbeu Korce win34%

Draw30%

AF Elbasani win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Line-ups

Skenderbeu Korce

AF Elbasani

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skenderbeu Korce

AF Elbasani

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	AF Elbasani	6	0	7
10	Skenderbeu Korce	6	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Skenderbeu Korce

Formation not confirmed

12 I. Dobjani

4 G. Lagonidis

6 K. Kaceli

8 E. Totre

17 B. Charles

25 D. Janaqi

26 O. Drame

28 B. Musa

32 E. Zenullari

77 K. Shaqe

97 A. Seydi

Coach · –

Substitutes

71 · M. Alia

2 · R. Kurti

3 · L. Lleshi

5 · Victor Braga

7 · D. Moussavou

9 · N. Velichkovski

10 · S. Nasr

11 · A. Diallo

18 · F. Shkembi

21 · K. Vangjeli

23 · M. Doda

67 · D. Jahiji

AF Elbasani

Formation not confirmed

24 I. Aleksovski

4 B. Lulaj

6 K. Lleshi

7 L. Tresa

9 R. Hebaj

10 A. Nikaj

17 A. Ibrahim

19 A. Mazari

32 F. Antovski

41 A. Borici

77 B. Lila

Coach · Ivan Gvozdenovic

Substitutes

1 · K. Totoshi

12 · R. Gega

3 · I. Ifeanyi

8 · D. Ibraimi

11 · K. Kasa

14 · M. Wague

21 · A. Deliu

22 · A. Lleshi

23 · E. Lukoki Mateso

25 · B. Gjeli

70 · I. Boye

92 · E. Gjini

Our number · af elbasani winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 03:44 · locked at kick-off

36% The market42%

Us36%

~~Market~~42%

We make AF Elbasani a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skenderbeu Korce v AF Elbasani~~1.14 – 1.18

~~Form · Superliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~10 v 5

~~The market · AF Elbasani win~~42% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AF Elbasani win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skenderbeu Korce win	34%	29%	+5
Draw	30%	29%	+1
AF Elbasani win	36%	42%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	41%	0
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Skenderbeu Korce or draw	64%	58%	+6
Skenderbeu Korce clean sheet	31%	–	–
AF Elbasani clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.1 10.7 6.9 2.7 1 10.2 14.0 7.7 3.1 2 6.4 7.4 4.4 3 2.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skenderbeu Korce down, AF Elbasani across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 952 Superliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skenderbeu Korce at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). AF Elbasani away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Skenderbeu Korce, 1.18 for AF Elbasani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AFE 0–0 SKE · SKE 0–2 AFE · AFE 1–1 SKE · SKE 1–1 AFE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Superliga this season · since 21 Aug

SKENDERBEU KORCE

DLLDDL2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

AF ELBASANI

DDLWDD1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	6	+8	15
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	6	+1	8
5	AF Elbasani	6	0	7
6	Laci	6	−3	7
7	Vllaznia Shkodër	6	−4	5
8	Vora	6	−7	5
9	Partizani	6	−5	4
10	Skenderbeu Korce	6	−4	3