Partizani v Tirana prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Partizani 1–3 Tirana PARTIZANI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Partizani win~~42%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.752

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.693

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Partizani win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Partizani 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
2′Little has changed for our model: Partizani 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–30
22′Tirana ahead on 7′ through R. Xhixha. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–24–60
28′Tirana ahead on 7′ through R. Xhixha. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
45′A goal for Partizani on 36′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–40–26
55′We said Partizani at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–46–23
76′We said Partizani at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–69–13
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Partizani
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Partizani win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
FTFULL TIME Partizani 1–3 Tirana
FTPartizani 1–3 Tirana · Partizani win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Partizani win42%

Draw28%

Tirana win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueArena e Demave

Line-ups

Partizani

Tirana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Partizani

Tirana

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Tirana	5	−1	5
8	Partizani	5	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Partizani

Formation not confirmed

60 P. Qirko

44 A. Mija

4 A. Janjeva

22 A. Marku

3 D. Atanaskoski

8 R. Ismaili

39 K. Ogunleye

14 E. Himallari

18 R. Human

10 X. Skuka

7 A. Aliu

Coach · –

Substitutes

40 · S. Tahri

5 · A. Doumbia

6 · B. Jatta

9 · A. Keko

17 · E. Celaj

19 · D. Vata

21 · V. Murataj

24 · A. Bintsouka

25 · R. Toma

26 · P. Buxhelaj

33 · D. Fadairo

51 · S. Sidibe

Tirana

Formation not confirmed

97 V. Bekaj

55 B. Ilievski

15 L. Vitija

95 P. Stanic

3 B. Ndong

7 P. Myslovic

6 A. Krymi

22 O. Qerimaj

27 D. Hazrollaj

11 E. Daci

19 R. Xhixha

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · K. Kuka

– · K. Hasani

31 · H. H. Fresneda

28 · M. Maci

8 · S. Vogli

33 · E. Meta

9 · T. Kis

23 · B. Berisha

17 · E. Tare

5 · J. Colley

10 · F. Alvarez

– · A. Bami

Our number · partizani winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

42% The market38%

Us42%

~~Market~~38%

We make Partizani a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · partizani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Partizani win	42%	38%	+4
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Tirana win	30%	32%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	43%	+5
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	68%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	26%	24%	+3
Partizani or draw	70%	68%	+3
Partizani clean sheet	32%	–	–
Tirana clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.6 7.7 5.1 1 9.7 13.3 7.1 2.8 2 7.6 8.8 5.1 3 3.7 4.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Partizani down, Tirana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 948 Superliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Partizani at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tirana away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Partizani, 1.16 for Tirana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 20

~~Both scored~~9 of 20

~~Last meetings~~TIR 2–1 PAR · PAR 2–0 TIR · TIR 0–2 PAR · PAR 0–3 TIR

Form · last six in Superliga

PARTIZANI

WDLWLL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–2

TIRANA

WLLWDD3–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	6	+10	16
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	5	+6	12
3	Dinamo Tirana	5	+5	12
4	AF Elbasani	6	0	7
5	Laci	5	−1	7
6	Tirana	5	−1	5
7	Vora	6	−7	5
8	Partizani	5	−3	4
9	Skenderbeu Korce	6	−4	3
10	Vllaznia Shkodër	5	−5	2