Partizani v Skenderbeu Korce prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Partizani 0–2 Skenderbeu Korce PARTIZANI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Partizani win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.709

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Partizani win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Partizani 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
1′KICK-OFF Partizani v Skenderbeu Korce
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Skenderbeu Korce
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Partizani
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Skenderbeu Korce
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Partizani win 37%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Partizani
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Partizani win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′SECOND HALF Partizani 0–0 Skenderbeu Korce
47′HALF-TIME Partizani 0–0 Skenderbeu Korce
50′We said Partizani at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–22
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Partizani · On: A. Doumbia · Off: E. Himallari
55′We said Partizani at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–70
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Skenderbeu Korce · On: L. Lleshi · Off: A. Seydi
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Partizani 0–1 Skenderbeu Korce
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Partizani win: 44% at kick-off, 7% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Skenderbeu Korce win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 49%)
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Partizani
56′A goal for Skenderbeu Korce on 56′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
65′We said Partizani at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Partizani win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
66′🟨 YELLOW · 56' G. Lagonidis · Skenderbeu Korce
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Partizani · On: D. Fadairo · Off: V. Murataj
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Skenderbeu Korce · On: K. Vangjeli · Off: F. Shkembi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Skenderbeu Korce · On: B. Musa · Off: E. Totre
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Skenderbeu Korce · On: M. Ndiaye · Off: B. Charles
88′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Partizani 0–2 Skenderbeu Korce
89′Skenderbeu Korce score on 88′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Partizani
94′0–2 at the end. Our 44% on Partizani misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Partizani · On: P. Buxhelaj · Off: A. Marku
94′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Partizani · On: A. Bintsouka · Off: A. Janjeva
94′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Partizani · On: R. Toma · Off: A. Keko
FTFULL TIME Partizani 0–2 Skenderbeu Korce
FTPartizani 0–2 Skenderbeu Korce · Partizani win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Partizani are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Partizani 44%, draw 29%, Skenderbeu Korce 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Partizani v Skenderbeu KorceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Partizani win44%

Draw29%

Skenderbeu Korce win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueArena e Demave

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Partizani

Skenderbeu Korce

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

Last match: 17 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Skenderbeu Korce	7	−3	6
10	Partizani	7	−8	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · partizani winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Partizani a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Partizani v Skenderbeu Korce~~1.37 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~10 v 8

~~The market · Partizani win~~41% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Partizani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Partizani win	44%	41%	+3
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Skenderbeu Korce win	27%	32%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	54%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Partizani or draw	73%	68%	+5
Partizani clean sheet	36%	–	–
Skenderbeu Korce clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.3 8.5 4.8 1 11.6 13.5 6.5 2.2 2 8.5 8.6 4.4 3 3.9 3.9 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Partizani down, Skenderbeu Korce across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 956 Superliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Partizani at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Skenderbeu Korce away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Partizani, 1.03 for Skenderbeu Korce. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SKE 1–2 PAR · PAR 1–1 SKE · SKE 0–2 PAR · PAR 2–1 SKE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 29 Aug

PARTIZANI

LWLLLL1–2 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4

SKENDERBEU KORCE

LLDDLW0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	7	+10	18
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	7	+2	11
5	Vora	7	−4	8
6	AF Elbasani	7	−1	7
7	Laci	7	−4	7
8	Skenderbeu Korce	7	−3	6
9	Vllaznia Shkodër	7	−6	5
10	Partizani	7	−8	4