Laci v Vora prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Laci 1–0 Vora LACI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Laci win~~41%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.523

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Laci win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Laci was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–29
1′KICK-OFF Laci v Vora
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Laci
10′PENALTY MISSED · 10' Vora
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Vora
29′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Laci
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Laci win 37%)
45′SECOND HALF Laci 0–0 Vora
46′HALF-TIME Laci 0–0 Vora
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Laci win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
52′We said Laci at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–22
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Vora
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vora · On: K. Halabaku · Off: E. Mihana
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vora · On: E. Asllanaj · Off: M. Barjamaj
63′We said Laci at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Laci · On: A. U. Muhammad · Off: O. Cena
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Laci win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Vora
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Laci · On: L. Doukouo · Off: S. Bibo
71′We said Laci at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Vora · On: B. Gjyla · Off: B. Karrica
72′We published Laci at 41%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Laci 1–0 Vora
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Laci win: 41% at kick-off, 86% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Laci win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 67%)
73′Laci find the net on 73′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–1
79′We published Laci at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Laci win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
85′We published Laci at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Laci
89′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vora · On: D. Trajkov · Off: Pedro Clemente
89′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vora · On: F. Hasaj · Off: K. Dalipi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Laci · On: E. Stafa · Off: A. Traore
93′Full time, 1–0. We called Laci at 41% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Vora
FTFULL TIME Laci 1–0 Vora
FTLaci 1–0 Vora · Laci win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Laci are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Laci 41%, draw 30%, Vora 29%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Laci v VoraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Laci win41%

Draw30%

Vora win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Laci

Vora

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

Last match: 18 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vora	7	−4	8
7	Laci	7	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · laci winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make Laci a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Laci v Vora~~1.24 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~7 v 5

~~The market · Laci win~~41% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Laci win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laci win	41%	41%	0
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Vora win	29%	31%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	50%	−11
Both teams to score	45%	55%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	66%	74%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	19%	29%	−10
Laci or draw	71%	69%	+2
Laci clean sheet	37%	–	–
Vora clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.9 9.8 5.3 1 12.3 13.9 6.5 2.2 2 8.2 8.0 4.0 3 3.4 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Laci down, Vora across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 956 Superliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Laci at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vora away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Laci, 0.99 for Vora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 29 Aug

LACI

WLWLLL2–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

VORA

LLLDDW1–3 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	7	+10	18
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	7	+2	11
5	Vora	7	−4	8
6	AF Elbasani	7	−1	7
7	Laci	7	−4	7
8	Skenderbeu Korce	7	−3	6
9	Vllaznia Shkodër	7	−6	5
10	Partizani	7	−8	4