Laci v Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Laci 0–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë EGNATIA RROGOZHINË WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Egnatia Rrogozhinë win~~38%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.583

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.404

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Egnatia Rrogozhinë win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Laci v Egnatia Rrogozhinë
2′Much as we predicted: Egnatia Rrogozhinë was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 32–29–38
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Egnatia Rrogozhinë
29′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Egnatia Rrogozhinë
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 30%)
45′SECOND HALF Laci 0–0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Laci
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Egnatia Rrogozhinë
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 30%)
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 30%)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' A. Yago · Egnatia Rrogozhinë
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' H. Tola · Laci
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 30%)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Egnatia Rrogozhinë
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Laci · On: O. Cena · Off: H. Tola
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Egnatia Rrogozhinë
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Laci
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: I. Diabate · Off: A. Albanese
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Laci
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Laci 0–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë
75′⚽ GOAL · 76' Laci 0–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Laci 0–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Laci
79′PENALTY MISSED · 80' Egnatia Rrogozhinë
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Laci · On: O. Biba · Off: G. Guri
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: E. Bitri · Off: K. Loukili
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Laci 0–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë · K. Loukili
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Laci 0–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Laci 0–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë · I. Diabate
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Laci · On: D. Ogah · Off: E. Ndubuisi
91′⚽ GOAL · 89' Laci 0–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë · I. Diabate
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Egnatia Rrogozhinë
FTFULL TIME Laci 0–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë
FTLaci 0–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë · Egnatia Rrogozhinë win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Laci win31%

Draw31%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

Line-ups

Laci

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Laci

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	5	+6	12
5	Laci	5	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Laci

Formation not confirmed

75 G. Guri

2 F. Azizi

5 A. Kurti

11 H. Tola

16 S. Bibo

17 E. Samuel

19 K. Ajazi

30 A. Traore

31 H. Nerguti

33 E. Stafa

55 E. Ndubuisi

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · O. Biba

99 · E. Pojana

4 · S. Nikolli

8 · O. Cena

14 · A. U. Muhammad

44 · J. Latifaj

80 · S. Kalaj

18 · L. Veseli

21 · K. Trad

22 · D. Ogah

7 · M. Aderibigbe

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Formation not confirmed

98 M. Dajsinani

2 D. Adjessa

6 A. Aleksi

10 A. Albanese

17 A. Kryeziu

20 K. Loukili

22 G. Jaime

24 N. Ajetovikj

28 E. Sota

29 A. Yago

30 R. Bakalli

Coach · Nevil Dede

Substitutes

1 · L. Tandilashvili

12 · B. Puja

4 · Z. Aliyev

8 · I. Diabate

13 · A. Kacbufi

16 · E. Ndreca

23 · B. Duka

33 · E. Bitri

55 · G. Smajli

77 · I. Gruda

80 · L. Beqja

99 · J. Montenegro

Our number · egnatia rrogozhinë winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

38% The market48%

Us38%

~~Market~~48%

We make Egnatia Rrogozhinë a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · egnatia rrogozhinë win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laci win	31%	24%	+7
Draw	31%	27%	+4
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win	38%	48%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
Laci or draw	62%	52%	+10
Laci clean sheet	32%	–	–
Egnatia Rrogozhinë clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 12.4 11.9 7.5 2.9 1 10.5 14.2 7.6 3.0 2 5.9 6.8 3.9 3 2.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Laci down, Egnatia Rrogozhinë across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 948 Superliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

16 previous meetings, 1.69 goals a meeting; 3 of 16 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Laci at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Egnatia Rrogozhinë away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Laci, 1.16 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.69

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 16

~~Both scored~~5 of 16

~~Last meetings~~LAC 1–1 EGN · EGN 1–0 LAC · LAC 2–0 EGN · EGN 2–1 LAC

Form · last six in Superliga

LACI

DDWLWL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–3

EGNATIA RROGOZHINË

WWWWLW2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	6	+10	16
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	5	+6	12
3	Dinamo Tirana	5	+5	12
4	AF Elbasani	6	0	7
5	Laci	5	−1	7
6	Tirana	5	−1	5
7	Vora	6	−7	5
8	Partizani	5	−3	4
9	Skenderbeu Korce	6	−4	3
10	Vllaznia Shkodër	5	−5	2