Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Vllaznia Shkodër prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3–1 Vllaznia Shkodër EGNATIA RROGOZHINË WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Egnatia Rrogozhinë win~~48%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.223

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Egnatia Rrogozhinë win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–23
1′KICK-OFF Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Vllaznia Shkodër
8′We said Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–8
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–0 Vllaznia Shkodër
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Egnatia Rrogozhinë win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
9′A goal for Egnatia Rrogozhinë on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Egnatia Rrogozhinë win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
40′We said Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2–0 Vllaznia Shkodër
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Egnatia Rrogozhinë win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
41′Egnatia Rrogozhinë score on 41′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′SECOND HALF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2–0 Vllaznia Shkodër
48′HALF-TIME Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2–0 Vllaznia Shkodër
58′We said Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–3
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2–1 Vllaznia Shkodër
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Egnatia Rrogozhinë win: 48% at kick-off, 82% now
59′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–15–2
60′Vllaznia Shkodër find the net on 59′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Egnatia Rrogozhinë
65′We said Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
68′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vllaznia Shkodër · On: E. O. Nwokporo · Off: K. Qato
68′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vllaznia Shkodër · On: D. Perez · Off: S. Uldedaj
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Egnatia Rrogozhinë win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
76′We said Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
85′We said Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3–1 Vllaznia Shkodër
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Egnatia Rrogozhinë win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′A goal for Egnatia Rrogozhinë on 86′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: I. Gruda · Off: D. Adjessa
90′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vllaznia Shkodër · On: M. Tounkara · Off: E. Murataj
90′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vllaznia Shkodër · On: H. Marku · Off: A. Mehmeti
90′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: L. Beqja · Off: I. Diabate
91′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: Fernando Medeiros · Off: R. Bakalli
91′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: A. Aleksi · Off: A. Kryeziu
91′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: K. Loukili · Off: A. Albanese
FTFULL TIME Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3–1 Vllaznia Shkodër
FTEgnatia Rrogozhinë 3–1 Vllaznia Shkodër · Egnatia Rrogozhinë win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Egnatia Rrogozhinë are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 48%, draw 29%, Vllaznia Shkodër 23%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Vllaznia ShkodërBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Egnatia Rrogozhinë win48%

Draw29%

Vllaznia Shkodër win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueDemrozi Stadium

Line-ups

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Vllaznia Shkodër

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Vllaznia Shkodër

3Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 11 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	6	+8	15
9	Vllaznia Shkodër	6	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Tandilashvili

2 D. Adjessa

8 I. Diabate

10 A. Albanese

16 E. Ndreca

17 A. Kryeziu

24 N. Ajetovikj

30 R. Bakalli

33 E. Bitri

55 G. Smajli

99 J. Montenegro

Coach · Nevil Dede

Substitutes

4 · Z. Aliyev

6 · A. Aleksi

7 · Fernando Medeiros

13 · A. Kacbufi

20 · K. Loukili

22 · G. Jaime

23 · B. Duka

28 · E. Sota

29 · A. Yago

77 · I. Gruda

80 · L. Beqja

98 · M. Dajsinani

Vllaznia Shkodër

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Jukaj

2 E. Gurishta

6 C. Dros

9 B. Balaj

11 E. Murataj

14 P. Bardhi

17 A. Mehmeti

25 K. Qato

29 E. Musta

33 X. Avduli

44 S. Uldedaj

Coach · Eduard Martini

Substitutes

12 · C. Avram

3 · G. Pusi

5 · F. Latifi

15 · E. O. Nwokporo

19 · A. Ara

20 · B. Brajkovic

21 · H. Marku

22 · S. Bizi

27 · G. Kubazi

40 · E. Tafili

45 · M. Tounkara

90 · D. Perez

Our number · egnatia rrogozhinë winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market62%

Us48%

~~Market~~62%

We make Egnatia Rrogozhinë a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Vllaznia Shkodër~~1.38 – 0.88

~~Form · Superliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 5~~2 v 9

~~The market · Egnatia Rrogozhinë win~~62% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Egnatia Rrogozhinë win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win	48%	62%	−14
Draw	29%	24%	+5
Vllaznia Shkodër win	23%	14%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	45%	45%	0
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw	77%	86%	−9
Egnatia Rrogozhinë clean sheet	42%	–	–
Vllaznia Shkodër clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.4 8.3 4.1 1 13.4 13.4 5.5 2 9.9 8.6 3.8 3 4.6 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Egnatia Rrogozhinë down, Vllaznia Shkodër across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 954 Superliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vllaznia Shkodër away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 0.88 for Vllaznia Shkodër. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VLL 1–2 EGN · EGN 0–0 VLL · VLL 1–0 EGN · EGN 2–2 VLL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Superliga this season · since 21 Aug

EGNATIA RROGOZHINË

WWWLWW3–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

VLLAZNIA SHKODËR

DDLLLW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	6	+8	15
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	7	+2	11
5	Vora	7	−4	8
6	AF Elbasani	7	−1	7
7	Laci	7	−4	7
8	Skenderbeu Korce	7	−3	6
9	Vllaznia Shkodër	6	−4	5
10	Partizani	7	−8	4