Dinamo Tirana v Teuta Durrës prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 20:01

Dinamo Tirana 0–2 Teuta Durrës DINAMO TIRANA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Tirana win~~41%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.715

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Tirana win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Tirana was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Tirana v Teuta Durrës
31′We said Dinamo Tirana at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–64
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 12–25–64
31′Teuta Durrës find the net on 31′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–64
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Dinamo Tirana 0–1 Teuta Durrës
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Dinamo Tirana win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Teuta Durrës win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Dinamo Tirana win 12%)
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Dinamo Tirana win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Teuta Durrës
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Dinamo Tirana
40′We said Dinamo Tirana at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Teuta Durrës
45′SECOND HALF Dinamo Tirana 0–1 Teuta Durrës
46′Teuta Durrës ahead on 32′ through P. Martelo. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–24–68
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Dinamo Tirana
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Teuta Durrës
46′HALF-TIME Dinamo Tirana 0–1 Teuta Durrës
49′We said Dinamo Tirana at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Dinamo Tirana 0–2 Teuta Durrës
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Dinamo Tirana win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Teuta Durrës
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Dinamo Tirana win: 41% at kick-off, 7% now
51′A goal for Teuta Durrës on 50′. 0–1 · 7–23–70
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Dinamo Tirana 0–2 Teuta Durrës
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Dinamo Tirana win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
63′A goal for Teuta Durrës on 63′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Dinamo Tirana
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Teuta Durrës
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Teuta Durrës
94′Full time, 0–2. We called Dinamo Tirana at 41% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Tirana 0–2 Teuta Durrës
FTDinamo Tirana 0–2 Teuta Durrës · Dinamo Tirana win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Tirana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Tirana 41%, draw 32%, Teuta Durrës 27%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Tirana v Teuta DurrësBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Tirana win41%

Draw32%

Teuta Durrës win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueElbasan Arena

Line-ups

Dinamo Tirana

Teuta Durrës

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Tirana

Teuta Durrës

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

Last match: 10 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Tirana

Formation not confirmed

77 A. Teqja

2 U. Ismaili

27 N. Aliji

6 A. Alhassan

47 Lorran

28 I. Manellari

21 K. Qefalija

10 L. Vila

20 M. Ayodeji

30 R. Rama

19 I. Mustapha

Coach · Ilir Daja

Substitutes

1 · E. Sali

97 · T. Kiri

8 · E. Qardaku

11 · R. Silva-Richards

16 · N. Bleta

17 · T. Nani

24 · F. Farruku

29 · H. Berisha

44 · J. Ochiche

45 · B. Aniekan James

80 · B. Goudiaby

88 · F. Ruci

Teuta Durrës

Formation not confirmed

30 P. Bernardoni

77 A. Toli

44 A. Fangaj

3 V. Zogos

18 F. Pergjoni

4 A. Jazxhi

8 X. Macolli

59 E. Arifi

10 S. Kallaku

20 E. Mala

9 P. Martelo

Coach · Bledar Hodo

Substitutes

12 · E. Vata

14 · J. Tetova

5 · I. Kukleci

7 · K. Daci

27 · K. Muha

13 · S. Huna

16 · G. Kuqi

70 · X. Trifoni

99 · M. A. Umejiego

73 · Maycon

Our number · dinamo tirana winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

41% The market37%

Us41%

~~Market~~37%

We make Dinamo Tirana a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Tirana v Teuta Durrës~~1.18 – 0.90

~~Form · Superliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 16~~3 v 1

~~The market · Dinamo Tirana win~~37% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Tirana win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Tirana win	41%	37%	+4
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Teuta Durrës win	27%	31%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	35%	40%	−5
Both teams to score	42%	47%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	62%	65%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Dinamo Tirana or draw	73%	69%	+4
Dinamo Tirana clean sheet	41%	–	–
Teuta Durrës clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.6 10.3 5.1 1 13.7 14.1 5.9 2 8.6 7.7 3.5 3 3.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Tirana down, Teuta Durrës across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 951 Superliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Tirana at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Teuta Durrës away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Dinamo Tirana, 0.90 for Teuta Durrës. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DIN 0–1 TEU · TEU 0–0 DIN · DIN 0–0 TEU · TEU 1–0 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Superliga this season · since 22 Aug

DINAMO TIRANA

LWWWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 0–1

TEUTA DURRËS

DWWWWW0–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	6	+10	16
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	6	+8	15
3	Dinamo Tirana	6	+4	12
4	Tirana	6	+1	8
5	AF Elbasani	6	0	7
6	Laci	6	−3	7
7	Vllaznia Shkodër	6	−4	5
8	Vora	6	−7	5
9	Partizani	6	−5	4
10	Skenderbeu Korce	6	−4	3