Dinamo Tirana v Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction · Superliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dinamo TiranaDrawEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Egnatia Rrogozhinë just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Tirana 33%, draw 30%, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 37%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Tirana v Egnatia RrogozhinëBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Tirana win33%

Draw30%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueElbasan Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Tirana

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

9Days since last match3

Last match: 16 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	7	+10	18
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · egnatia rrogozhinë winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Egnatia Rrogozhinë a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Tirana v Egnatia Rrogozhinë~~1.12 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 18~~3 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Tirana win	33%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Dinamo Tirana or draw	63%	–	–
Dinamo Tirana clean sheet	30%	–	–
Egnatia Rrogozhinë clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.9 10.9 7.1 2.9 1 10.1 13.9 7.8 3.2 2 6.1 7.3 4.4 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Tirana down, Egnatia Rrogozhinë across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 960 Superliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.7% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Tirana at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Egnatia Rrogozhinë away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Dinamo Tirana, 1.21 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EGN 2–0 DIN · DIN 3–2 EGN · DIN 2–0 EGN · EGN 1–0 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 31 Aug

DINAMO TIRANA

WWWWLL1–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

EGNATIA RROGOZHINË

WWLWWW3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	8	+12	20
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	7	+10	18
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	8	0	11
5	Laci	8	−3	10
6	Skenderbeu Korce	8	−1	9
7	AF Elbasani	8	−1	8
8	Vllaznia Shkodër	8	−4	8
9	Vora	8	−5	8
10	Partizani	8	−10	4