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AF Elbasani v Vora

AF Elbasani

1–1Full time

Vora

Superliga · SAT 10 OCT · Elbasan Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

AF Elbasani 1–1 Vora AF ELBASANI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said AF Elbasani win~~48%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.810

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.964

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AF Elbasani win at 48%.
2′Little has changed for our model: AF Elbasani 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
22′A goal for AF Elbasani on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
25′A. Mazari scores for AF Elbasani on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
42′A. Mazari scores for AF Elbasani on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′We said AF Elbasani at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–5
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
45′SECOND HALF AF Elbasani 1–1 Vora
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vora · On: J. Vrapi · Off: K. Dionellis
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' AF Elbasani 1–1 Vora · A. Mazari
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' AF Elbasani 1–1 Vora
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Vora
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' AF Elbasani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Vora
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' L. Frroku · Vora
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Vora
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' AF Elbasani · On: K. Kasa · Off: R. Hebaj
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Vora · On: F. Hasaj · Off: B. Gjyla
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Vora · On: D. Daka · Off: K. Halabaku
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Vora
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' AF Elbasani · On: K. Lleshi · Off: Y. Epitaux
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' AF Elbasani · On: E. Lukoki Mateso · Off: A. Nikaj
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vora · On: O. Ruci · Off: K. Dalipi
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' AF Elbasani
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' A. Mazari · AF Elbasani
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' AF Elbasani · On: I. Boye · Off: A. Mazari
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' AF Elbasani · On: M. Wague · Off: B. Lila
FTFULL TIME AF Elbasani 1–1 Vora
FTAF Elbasani 1–1 Vora · AF Elbasani win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AF Elbasani win48%

Draw28%

Vora win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Elbasan Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AF Elbasani

Formation not confirmed

24 I. Aleksovski

77 B. Lila

4 B. Lulaj

15 Y. Epitaux

32 F. Antovski

17 A. Ibrahim

41 A. Borici

19 A. Mazari

7 L. Tresa

10 A. Nikaj

9 R. Hebaj

Coach · Ivan Gvozdenovic

Substitutes

1 · K. Totoshi

3 · I. Ifeanyi

6 · K. Lleshi

8 · D. Ibraimi

11 · K. Kasa

14 · M. Wague

21 · A. Deliu

22 · A. Lleshi

23 · E. Lukoki Mateso

25 · B. Gjeli

70 · I. Boye

92 · E. Gjini

Vora

Formation not confirmed

55 R. Harizaj

2 H. Zuna

33 D. Shehi

6 C. Shiba

99 K. Dionellis

18 K. Dalipi

21 L. Frroku

29 K. Halabaku

77 B. Gjyla

9 Pedro Clemente

7 B. Karrica

Coach · Arjan Bellaj

Substitutes

1 · B. Betoja

23 · S. Ruci

4 · E. Asllanaj

5 · R. Marinaj

8 · F. Hasaj

11 · D. Trajkov

14 · J. Vrapi

16 · O. Ruci

17 · M. Kovaci

19 · A. Folahan

22 · E. Mihana

24 · D. Daka

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AF Elbasani

Formation not confirmed

24 I. Aleksovski

77 B. Lila

4 B. Lulaj

15 Y. Epitaux

32 F. Antovski

17 A. Ibrahim

41 A. Borici

19 A. Mazari

7 L. Tresa

10 A. Nikaj

9 R. Hebaj

Coach · Ivan Gvozdenovic

Substitutes

1 · K. Totoshi

3 · I. Ifeanyi

6 · K. Lleshi

8 · D. Ibraimi

11 · K. Kasa

14 · M. Wague

21 · A. Deliu

22 · A. Lleshi

23 · E. Lukoki Mateso

25 · B. Gjeli

70 · I. Boye

92 · E. Gjini

Vora

Formation not confirmed

55 R. Harizaj

2 H. Zuna

33 D. Shehi

6 C. Shiba

99 K. Dionellis

18 K. Dalipi

21 L. Frroku

29 K. Halabaku

77 B. Gjyla

9 Pedro Clemente

7 B. Karrica

Coach · Arjan Bellaj

Substitutes

1 · B. Betoja

23 · S. Ruci

4 · E. Asllanaj

5 · R. Marinaj

8 · F. Hasaj

11 · D. Trajkov

14 · J. Vrapi

16 · O. Ruci

17 · M. Kovaci

19 · A. Folahan

22 · E. Mihana

24 · D. Daka

Our number · af elbasani winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

48% The market60%

Us48%

~~Market~~60%

We make AF Elbasani a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · af elbasani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AF Elbasani win	48%	60%	−11
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Vora win	24%	17%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	45%	54%	−9
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
AF Elbasani or draw	76%	83%	−7
AF Elbasani clean sheet	38%	–	–
Vora clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.5 7.3 4.0 1 11.7 13.1 5.9 2 9.4 9.1 4.4 3 4.7 4.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AF Elbasani down, Vora across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 946 Superliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AF Elbasani at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vora away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for AF Elbasani, 0.98 for Vora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VOR 4–2 AFE · AFE 2–1 VOR · VOR 0–1 AFE · AFE 1–2 VOR

Form · last six in Superliga

AF ELBASANI

WDDLWD2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

VORA

WWLLLD5–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	5	+8	13
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	5	+6	12
3	Dinamo Tirana	5	+5	12
4	Laci	5	−1	7
5	AF Elbasani	5	0	6
6	Tirana	5	−1	5
7	Partizani	5	−3	4
8	Vora	5	−7	4
9	Skenderbeu Korce	5	−2	3
10	Vllaznia Shkodër	5	−5	2