AF Elbasani v Partizani prediction · Superliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AF ElbasaniDrawPartizani

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · AF Elbasani 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AF Elbasani are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AF Elbasani 47%, draw 27%, Partizani 26%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on AF Elbasani v PartizaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

AF Elbasani win47%

Draw27%

Partizani win26%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueElbasan Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AF Elbasani

Partizani

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	AF Elbasani	7	−1	7
10	Partizani	8	−10	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · af elbasani winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make AF Elbasani a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AF Elbasani v Partizani~~1.53 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AF Elbasani win	47%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Partizani win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
AF Elbasani or draw	74%	–	–
AF Elbasani clean sheet	34%	–	–
Partizani clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.3 7.1 4.3 1 10.3 12.8 6.5 2.4 2 8.5 9.1 5.0 3 4.4 4.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AF Elbasani down, Partizani across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 956 Superliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AF Elbasani at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Partizani away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for AF Elbasani, 1.09 for Partizani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AFE 3–0 PAR · PAR 1–2 AFE · AFE 0–1 PAR · PAR 2–2 AFE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 5 Sept

AF ELBASANI

LWDDLD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

PARTIZANI

WLLLLL3–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Teuta Durrës	7	+12	19
2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	7	+10	18
3	Dinamo Tirana	7	+2	12
4	Tirana	7	+2	11
5	Laci	8	−3	10
6	Skenderbeu Korce	8	−1	9
7	Vora	8	−5	8
8	AF Elbasani	7	−1	7
9	Vllaznia Shkodër	7	−6	5
10	Partizani	8	−10	4