Sopoti Librazhd v Oriku prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Sopoti Librazhd 1–1 Oriku SOPOTI LIBRAZHD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sopoti Librazhd win~~66%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.094

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.048

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sopoti Librazhd win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sopoti Librazhd 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–20–13
1′KICK-OFF Sopoti Librazhd v Oriku
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Sopoti Librazhd win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
40′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–32–14
45′HALF-TIME Sopoti Librazhd 0–0 Oriku
46′PENALTY MISSED · 45+1' Sopoti Librazhd
46′SECOND HALF Sopoti Librazhd 0–0 Oriku
50′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–38–14
51′Sopoti Librazhd score on 51′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
51′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–2
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Sopoti Librazhd 1–0 Oriku
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Sopoti Librazhd win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
70′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
74′Oriku find the net on 74′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–63–9
74′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–63–9
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Sopoti Librazhd 1–1 Oriku
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Sopoti Librazhd win: 66% at kick-off, 28% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Sopoti Librazhd win 91%)
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Sopoti Librazhd win: 66% at kick-off, 25% now
77′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–68–8
81′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–76–6
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Sopoti Librazhd win: 66% at kick-off, 16% now
84′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–83–4
88′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Sopoti Librazhd win: 66% at kick-off, 6% now
93′We said Sopoti Librazhd at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–95–1
FTFULL TIME Sopoti Librazhd 1–1 Oriku
FTSopoti Librazhd 1–1 Oriku · Sopoti Librazhd win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sopoti Librazhd are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sopoti Librazhd 66%, draw 20%, Oriku 13%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Sopoti Librazhd v OrikuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sopoti Librazhd win66%

Draw20%

Oriku win13%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sopoti Librazhd

Oriku

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

Last match: 16 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sopoti Librazhd	6	−4	6
12	Oriku	6	−13	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sopoti librazhd winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

66% The market65%

Us66%

~~Market~~65%

We make Sopoti Librazhd a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sopoti Librazhd v Oriku~~2.16 – 0.78

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 6 v 0~~11 v 12

~~The market · Sopoti Librazhd win~~65% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sopoti Librazhd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sopoti Librazhd win	66%	65%	+1
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Oriku win	13%	13%	0
Over 2.5 goals	55%	52%	+3
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	32%	+2
Sopoti Librazhd or draw	87%	87%	0
Sopoti Librazhd clean sheet	47%	–	–
Oriku clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.7%

0123450 6.7 4.3 1 11.3 9.3 3.6 2 11.7 8.7 3.5 3 8.3 5.9 2.3 4 4.8 3.3 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Sopoti Librazhd down, Oriku across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,073 1st Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Sopoti Librazhd at home: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 2). Oriku away: 0.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Sopoti Librazhd, 0.78 for Oriku. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

SOPOTI LIBRAZHD

DLWDLD1–1 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

ORIKU

LLLLLL0–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogradeci	7	+6	13
2	Flamurtari	7	+5	12
3	Bylis	7	+2	11
4	Besa Kavajë	6	+8	10
5	FK Kukesi	6	+1	9
6	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	6	+1	9
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	7	0	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	6	−1	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	6	−3	8
10	Burreli	6	−2	6
11	Sopoti Librazhd	6	−4	6
12	Oriku	6	−13	0