Oriku v Flamurtari prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

Oriku 1–4 Flamurtari FLAMURTARI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flamurtari win~~54%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.315

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.163

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flamurtari win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Flamurtari was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 18–26–56
1′KICK-OFF Oriku v Flamurtari
28′We published Flamurtari at 54%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 4–14–82
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Oriku 0–1 Flamurtari
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Flamurtari win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
29′A goal for Flamurtari on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–14–82
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 4–14–82
39′We published Flamurtari at 54%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Oriku 0–2 Flamurtari
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Flamurtari win: 54% at kick-off, 97% now
40′Flamurtari score on 40′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
45′SECOND HALF Oriku 0–2 Flamurtari
46′HALF-TIME Oriku 0–2 Flamurtari
57′We published Flamurtari at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Oriku 0–3 Flamurtari
58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
58′Flamurtari find the net on 58′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
74′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Oriku 0–4 Flamurtari
76′A goal for Flamurtari on 75′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
86′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
86′Oriku score on 86′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Oriku 1–4 Flamurtari
88′6 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Oriku 1–5 Flamurtari
88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' Flamurtari
89′A goal for Flamurtari on 89′. 1–4 · 0–0–100
92′Full time, 1–4. We called Flamurtari at 54% — that one lands. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Oriku 1–4 Flamurtari
FTOriku 1–4 Flamurtari · Flamurtari win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flamurtari are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oriku 19%, draw 27%, Flamurtari 54%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Oriku v FlamurtariBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Oriku win19%

Draw27%

Flamurtari win54%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oriku

Flamurtari

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Flamurtari	5	+1	6
12	Oriku	5	−10	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flamurtari winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

54% The market68%

Us54%

~~Market~~68%

We make Flamurtari a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oriku v Flamurtari~~0.74 – 1.52

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D0 L5 · W1 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 6~~12 v 6

~~The market · Flamurtari win~~68% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flamurtari win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oriku win	19%	11%	+8
Draw	27%	22%	+5
Flamurtari win	54%	68%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	39%	52%	−13
Both teams to score	39%	44%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	66%	74%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	20%	32%	−12
Oriku or draw	46%	32%	+14
Oriku clean sheet	23%	–	–
Flamurtari clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.2%

0123450 11.9 15.2 11.7 6.1 2.6 1 7.3 11.6 8.0 4.1 2 3.1 4.3 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oriku down, Flamurtari across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,065 1st Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oriku at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Flamurtari away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for Oriku, 1.52 for Flamurtari. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ORI 0–1 FLA · FLA 3–0 ORI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 6 Sept

ORIKU

LLLLL0–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 0–2

FLAMURTARI

DDLDW3–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogradeci	5	+6	11
2	Besa Kavajë	5	+10	10
3	Bylis	5	+2	9
4	Kastrioti Krujë	5	+2	8
5	Korabi Peshkopi	5	−3	7
6	Flamurtari	5	+1	6
7	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	5	0	6
8	FK Kukesi	5	−1	6
9	Burreli	5	−1	6
10	Besëlidhja Lezhë	5	−2	5
11	Sopoti Librazhd	5	−4	5
12	Oriku	5	−10	0