Korabi Peshkopi v Pogradeci prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Korabi Peshkopi 0–2 Pogradeci POGRADECI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pogradeci win~~45%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.277

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pogradeci win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pogradeci 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–27–45
4′Little has changed for our model: Pogradeci 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–28–45
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
46′SECOND HALF Korabi Peshkopi 0–0 Pogradeci
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Pogradeci win 35%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Pogradeci win 35%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Pogradeci win 35%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Pogradeci win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Pogradeci win 35%)
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Korabi Peshkopi 0–1 Pogradeci
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Korabi Peshkopi 0–2 Pogradeci
FTFULL TIME Korabi Peshkopi 0–2 Pogradeci
FTKorabi Peshkopi 0–2 Pogradeci · Pogradeci win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Korabi Peshkopi win27%

Draw28%

Pogradeci win45%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Korabi Peshkopi

Pogradeci

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Pogradeci	4	+4	8
4	Korabi Peshkopi	4	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pogradeci winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

45% The market57%

Us45%

~~Market~~57%

We make Pogradeci a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pogradeci win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korabi Peshkopi win	27%	17%	+10
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Pogradeci win	45%	57%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	42%	45%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	45%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Korabi Peshkopi or draw	55%	43%	+13
Korabi Peshkopi clean sheet	26%	–	–
Pogradeci clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.2 12.2 8.6 4.1 1 8.9 12.9 8.3 3.9 2 4.8 6.2 4.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korabi Peshkopi down, Pogradeci across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,061 1st Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Korabi Peshkopi at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Pogradeci away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Korabi Peshkopi, 1.38 for Pogradeci. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~POG 4–1 KOR · POG 3–1 KOR · KOR 1–2 POG · KOR 3–0 POG

Form · last six in 1st Division

KORABI PESHKOPI

DDWWDL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

POGRADECI

DLDWWD1–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bylis	5	+2	9
2	Pogradeci	4	+4	8
3	Besa Kavajë	4	+8	7
4	Korabi Peshkopi	4	−1	7
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	4	+2	6
6	Flamurtari	5	+1	6
7	FK Kukesi	5	−1	6
8	Kastrioti Krujë	4	0	5
9	Burreli	4	−1	5
10	Sopoti Librazhd	5	−4	5
11	Besëlidhja Lezhë	4	−2	4
12	Oriku	4	−8	0