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Model 1.2

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Korabi Peshkopi v Bylis

Korabi Peshkopi
0–0Full time
Bylis

1st Division · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Korabi Peshkopi 0–0 Bylis BYLIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bylis win37%
The market said33%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.723
The market’s Brier score0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bylis win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Bylis was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 32–31–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Korabi Peshkopi v Bylis
  4. 27′PENALTY MISSED · 27' Bylis
  5. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Bylis win 33%)
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Korabi Peshkopi 0–0 Bylis
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Korabi Peshkopi 0–0 Bylis
  8. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Bylis win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  9. 55′We said Bylis at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 23–52–25
  10. 58′We said Bylis at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
  11. 68′We said Bylis at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
  12. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Bylis win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  13. 75′We said Bylis at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–72–14
  14. 82′We said Bylis at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
  15. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Bylis win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  16. 89′We said Bylis at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  17. FTFULL TIME Korabi Peshkopi 0–0 Bylis
  18. FTKorabi Peshkopi 0–0 Bylis · Bylis win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bylis just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Korabi Peshkopi 33%, draw 31%, Bylis 37%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Korabi Peshkopi v BylisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Korabi Peshkopi win33%
Draw31%
Bylis win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Korabi Peshkopi

Bylis

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Bylis5+29
7Korabi Peshkopi5−37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bylis winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off
37% The market33%
Us37%
Market33%

We make Bylis a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Korabi Peshkopi v Bylis1.03 – 1.12
Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L0
Table places · points 7 v 97 v 4
The market · Bylis win33% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 11 OCT 04:0017 OCT 11:36
Our probability · Bylis win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Korabi Peshkopi win33%37%−4
Draw31%30%+1
Bylis win37%33%+4
Over 2.5 goals36%40%−4
Both teams to score42%48%−6
Over 1.5 goals63%65%−2
Over 3.5 goals17%22%−5
Korabi Peshkopi or draw63%67%−4
Korabi Peshkopi clean sheet34%––
Bylis clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%
0123450 13.1 12.6 7.3 2.8 1 11.5 13.4 7.0 2.7 2 6.2 6.6 3.6 3 2.2 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Korabi Peshkopi down, Bylis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsBYL 3–2 KOR · KOR 2–1 BYL · BYL 1–0 KOR · KOR 1–0 BYL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

KORABI PESHKOPI

WWDLL1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

BYLIS

DWDDW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pogradeci5+611
2Besa Kavajë6+810
3Flamurtari6+49
4Bylis5+29
5FK Kukesi6+19
6Kastrioti Krujë5+28
7Korabi Peshkopi5−37
8Iliria Fushë-Krujë506
9Burreli5−16
10Besëlidhja Lezhë5−25
11Sopoti Librazhd5−45
12Oriku6−130

The competition's standings before kick-off.