Korabi Peshkopi v Burreli prediction · 1st Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Korabi PeshkopiDrawBurreli

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Korabi Peshkopi 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Korabi Peshkopi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Korabi Peshkopi 44%, draw 31%, Burreli 24%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Korabi Peshkopi v BurreliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Korabi Peshkopi win44%

Draw31%

Burreli win24%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Korabi Peshkopi

Burreli

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Korabi Peshkopi	7	−5	8
11	Burreli	7	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · korabi peshkopi winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Korabi Peshkopi a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Korabi Peshkopi v Burreli~~1.18 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 6~~9 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korabi Peshkopi win	44%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Burreli win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Korabi Peshkopi or draw	76%	–	–
Korabi Peshkopi clean sheet	46%	–	–
Burreli clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 14.9 10.5 4.4 1 15.8 13.1 5.0 2 9.6 7.4 2.9 3 3.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korabi Peshkopi down, Burreli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,077 1st Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.5% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Korabi Peshkopi at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Burreli away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Korabi Peshkopi, 0.79 for Burreli. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUR 0–0 KOR · KOR 0–1 BUR · BUR 0–3 KOR · BUR 1–2 KOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 11 Sept

KORABI PESHKOPI

WDLLDL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–2

BURRELI

DLWDLL1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Besa Kavajë	7	+10	13
2	Pogradeci	7	+6	13
3	Flamurtari	7	+5	12
4	FK Kukesi	7	+2	12
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	7	+2	12
6	Bylis	7	+2	11
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	7	0	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	7	−2	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	7	−5	8
10	Sopoti Librazhd	7	−4	7
11	Burreli	7	−3	6
12	Oriku	7	−13	1