Kastrioti Krujë v Oriku prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Kastrioti Krujë 2–0 Oriku KASTRIOTI KRUJË WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kastrioti Krujë win~~61%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.234

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.168

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kastrioti Krujë win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kastrioti Krujë was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–21–16
1′KICK-OFF Kastrioti Krujë v Oriku
2′Much as we predicted: Kastrioti Krujë was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Kastrioti Krujë win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Kastrioti Krujë win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
45′We said Kastrioti Krujë at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–17
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Kastrioti Krujë win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Kastrioti Krujë win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
45′HALF-TIME Kastrioti Krujë 0–0 Oriku
46′SECOND HALF Kastrioti Krujë 0–0 Oriku
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Kastrioti Krujë win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Kastrioti Krujë win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Kastrioti Krujë 1–0 Oriku
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Kastrioti Krujë win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kastrioti Krujë 2–0 Oriku
FTFULL TIME Kastrioti Krujë 2–0 Oriku
FTKastrioti Krujë 2–0 Oriku · Kastrioti Krujë win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kastrioti Krujë win61%

Draw22%

Oriku win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kastrioti Krujë

Oriku

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kastrioti Krujë	4	0	5
12	Oriku	4	−8	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kastrioti krujë winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

61% The market67%

Us61%

~~Market~~67%

We make Kastrioti Krujë a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kastrioti krujë win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kastrioti Krujë win	61%	67%	−6
Draw	22%	20%	+2
Oriku win	18%	13%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	53%	+2
Both teams to score	51%	46%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	31%	+3
Kastrioti Krujë or draw	82%	87%	−4
Kastrioti Krujë clean sheet	41%	–	–
Oriku clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.3%

0123450 6.5 5.0 2.6 1 10.3 10.1 4.6 2 10.2 8.9 4.2 3 6.8 5.8 2.7 4 3.7 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kastrioti Krujë down, Oriku across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,061 1st Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Kastrioti Krujë at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Oriku away: 0.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Kastrioti Krujë, 0.93 for Oriku. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1st Division

KASTRIOTI KRUJË

LWDLWD1–2 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

ORIKU

WLLLLL4–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bylis	5	+2	9
2	Pogradeci	4	+4	8
3	Besa Kavajë	4	+8	7
4	Korabi Peshkopi	4	−1	7
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	4	+2	6
6	Flamurtari	5	+1	6
7	FK Kukesi	5	−1	6
8	Kastrioti Krujë	4	0	5
9	Burreli	4	−1	5
10	Sopoti Librazhd	5	−4	5
11	Besëlidhja Lezhë	4	−2	4
12	Oriku	4	−8	0