Kastrioti Krujë v Iliria Fushë-Krujë prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Kastrioti Krujë 0–1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë KASTRIOTI KRUJË WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kastrioti Krujë win~~41%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.713

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kastrioti Krujë win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kastrioti Krujë was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′KICK-OFF Kastrioti Krujë v Iliria Fushë-Krujë
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Kastrioti Krujë win 36%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Kastrioti Krujë win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
54′We said Kastrioti Krujë at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–48–24
64′We said Kastrioti Krujë at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
FTFULL TIME Kastrioti Krujë 0–1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë
FTKastrioti Krujë 0–1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë · Kastrioti Krujë win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kastrioti Krujë are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kastrioti Krujë 41%, draw 28%, Iliria Fushë-Krujë 31%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Kastrioti Krujë v Iliria Fushë-KrujëBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kastrioti Krujë win41%

Draw28%

Iliria Fushë-Krujë win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kastrioti Krujë

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	6	+1	9
8	Kastrioti Krujë	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kastrioti krujë winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market43%

Us41%

~~Market~~43%

We make Kastrioti Krujë a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kastrioti Krujë v Iliria Fushë-Krujë~~1.34 – 1.14

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~8 v 6

~~The market · Kastrioti Krujë win~~43% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kastrioti Krujë win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kastrioti Krujë win	41%	43%	−2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Iliria Fushë-Krujë win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	47%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Kastrioti Krujë or draw	69%	70%	−1
Kastrioti Krujë clean sheet	33%	–	–
Iliria Fushë-Krujë clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.4 9.2 5.5 2.1 1 10.8 13.0 7.0 2.7 2 7.5 8.2 4.6 3 3.4 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kastrioti Krujë down, Iliria Fushë-Krujë across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,073 1st Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kastrioti Krujë at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Iliria Fushë-Krujë away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Kastrioti Krujë, 1.14 for Iliria Fushë-Krujë. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ILI 1–0 KAS · ILI 0–1 KAS · KAS 1–1 ILI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

KASTRIOTI KRUJË

DLWDWL2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–4

ILIRIA FUSHË-KRUJË

DWDDLW0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogradeci	7	+6	13
2	Flamurtari	7	+5	12
3	Bylis	7	+2	11
4	Besa Kavajë	6	+8	10
5	FK Kukesi	6	+1	9
6	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	6	+1	9
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	7	0	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	6	−1	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	6	−3	8
10	Burreli	6	−2	6
11	Sopoti Librazhd	6	−4	6
12	Oriku	6	−13	0