Iliria Fushë-Krujë v Flamurtari prediction · 1st Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Iliria Fushë-KrujëDrawFlamurtari

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Flamurtari 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flamurtari are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iliria Fushë-Krujë 31%, draw 32%, Flamurtari 37%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Iliria Fushë-Krujë v FlamurtariBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Iliria Fushë-Krujë win31%

Draw32%

Flamurtari win37%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Flamurtari

5Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

Last match: 23 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Flamurtari	7	+5	12
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	7	+2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flamurtari winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Flamurtari a 37% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iliria Fushë-Krujë v Flamurtari~~0.91 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flamurtari win

Published at 38%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iliria Fushë-Krujë win	31%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Flamurtari win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Iliria Fushë-Krujë or draw	63%	–	–
Iliria Fushë-Krujë clean sheet	37%	–	–
Flamurtari clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.7%

0123450 15.7 14.3 7.6 2.7 1 12.5 13.4 6.6 2.3 2 5.9 5.9 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iliria Fushë-Krujë down, Flamurtari across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,077 1st Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.5% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Iliria Fushë-Krujë at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Flamurtari away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Iliria Fushë-Krujë, 1.02 for Flamurtari. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 11 Sept

ILIRIA FUSHË-KRUJË

WDDLWW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

FLAMURTARI

DLDWWW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Besa Kavajë	7	+10	13
2	Pogradeci	7	+6	13
3	Flamurtari	7	+5	12
4	FK Kukesi	7	+2	12
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	7	+2	12
6	Bylis	7	+2	11
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	7	0	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	7	−2	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	7	−5	8
10	Sopoti Librazhd	7	−4	7
11	Burreli	7	−3	6
12	Oriku	7	−13	1