Iliria Fushë-Krujë v Burreli prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1–0 Burreli ILIRIA FUSHË-KRUJË WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Iliria Fushë-Krujë win~~49%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.398

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.338

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Iliria Fushë-Krujë win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Iliria Fushë-Krujë 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–31–20
1′KICK-OFF Iliria Fushë-Krujë v Burreli
15′A goal for Iliria Fushë-Krujë on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1–0 Burreli
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Iliria Fushë-Krujë win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
16′We said Iliria Fushë-Krujë at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
45′HALF-TIME Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1–0 Burreli
46′A. Diarrassouba scores for Iliria Fushë-Krujë on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
46′SECOND HALF Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1–0 Burreli
55′We said Iliria Fushë-Krujë at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Iliria Fushë-Krujë win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
72′We said Iliria Fushë-Krujë at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′We said Iliria Fushë-Krujë at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Iliria Fushë-Krujë win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1–0 Burreli
FTIliria Fushë-Krujë 1–0 Burreli · Iliria Fushë-Krujë win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iliria Fushë-Krujë are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iliria Fushë-Krujë 49%, draw 31%, Burreli 20%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Iliria Fushë-Krujë v BurreliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Iliria Fushë-Krujë win49%

Draw31%

Burreli win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Burreli

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	5	0	6
9	Burreli	5	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iliria fushë-krujë winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

49% The market53%

Us49%

~~Market~~53%

We make Iliria Fushë-Krujë a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iliria Fushë-Krujë v Burreli~~1.25 – 0.69

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L1 · W1 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~8 v 9

~~The market · Iliria Fushë-Krujë win~~53% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Iliria Fushë-Krujë win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iliria Fushë-Krujë win	49%	53%	−4
Draw	31%	27%	+4
Burreli win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	31%	44%	−13
Both teams to score	35%	46%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	58%	68%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	14%	25%	−11
Iliria Fushë-Krujë or draw	80%	80%	0
Iliria Fushë-Krujë clean sheet	51%	–	–
Burreli clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.2%

0123450 15.5 9.4 3.5 1 17.2 12.5 4.2 2 11.0 7.4 2.6 3 4.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iliria Fushë-Krujë down, Burreli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,067 1st Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.6% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iliria Fushë-Krujë at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Burreli away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Iliria Fushë-Krujë, 0.69 for Burreli. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BUR 0–0 ILI · BUR 1–1 ILI · ILI 2–2 BUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

ILIRIA FUSHË-KRUJË

DWDDL0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

BURRELI

DDLWD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogradeci	5	+6	11
2	Besa Kavajë	6	+8	10
3	Flamurtari	6	+4	9
4	Bylis	5	+2	9
5	FK Kukesi	6	+1	9
6	Kastrioti Krujë	5	+2	8
7	Korabi Peshkopi	5	−3	7
8	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	5	0	6
9	Burreli	5	−1	6
10	Besëlidhja Lezhë	5	−2	5
11	Sopoti Librazhd	5	−4	5
12	Oriku	6	−13	0