Flamurtari v Besëlidhja Lezhë prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02

Flamurtari 1–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë FLAMURTARI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Flamurtari win~~66%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.180

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.210

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flamurtari win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Flamurtari 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–22–13
1′KICK-OFF Flamurtari v Besëlidhja Lezhë
8′Flamurtari find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Flamurtari 1–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Flamurtari win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
9′We said Flamurtari at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
45′HALF-TIME Flamurtari 1–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë
46′SECOND HALF Flamurtari 1–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë
66′We said Flamurtari at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′We said Flamurtari at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Flamurtari win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Flamurtari 1–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë
FTFlamurtari 1–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë · Flamurtari win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flamurtari are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flamurtari 66%, draw 22%, Besëlidhja Lezhë 13%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Flamurtari v Besëlidhja LezhëBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Flamurtari win66%

Draw22%

Besëlidhja Lezhë win13%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadiumi Flamurtari

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flamurtari

Besëlidhja Lezhë

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Flamurtari	6	+4	9
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	6	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flamurtari winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

66% The market63%

Us66%

~~Market~~63%

We make Flamurtari a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Flamurtari v Besëlidhja Lezhë~~1.99 – 0.68

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~4 v 7

~~The market · Flamurtari win~~63% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flamurtari win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 66% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flamurtari win	66%	63%	+3
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Besëlidhja Lezhë win	13%	14%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	41%	49%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Flamurtari or draw	87%	86%	+1
Flamurtari clean sheet	51%	–	–
Besëlidhja Lezhë clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 8.3 4.7 1 13.4 9.7 3.3 2 13.0 8.5 3.0 3 8.6 5.4 4 4.6 2.8 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Flamurtari down, Besëlidhja Lezhë across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,071 1st Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flamurtari at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Besëlidhja Lezhë away: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Flamurtari, 0.68 for Besëlidhja Lezhë. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BES 0–3 FLA · FLA 2–2 BES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

FLAMURTARI

DDLDWW3–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 4–1

BESËLIDHJA LEZHË

LLDWDW0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogradeci	6	+6	12
2	Besa Kavajë	6	+8	10
3	Bylis	6	+2	10
4	Flamurtari	6	+4	9
5	FK Kukesi	6	+1	9
6	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	6	+1	9
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	6	+1	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	6	−1	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	6	−3	8
10	Burreli	6	−2	6
11	Sopoti Librazhd	6	−4	6
12	Oriku	6	−13	0