FK Kukesi v Kastrioti Krujë prediction · 1st Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FK KukesiDrawKastrioti Krujë

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FK Kukesi 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Kukesi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Kukesi 49%, draw 25%, Kastrioti Krujë 27%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on FK Kukesi v Kastrioti KrujëBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FK Kukesi win49%

Draw25%

Kastrioti Krujë win27%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKukes Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Kukesi

Kastrioti Krujë

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FK Kukesi	7	+2	12
8	Kastrioti Krujë	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk kukesi winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make FK Kukesi a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Kukesi v Kastrioti Krujë~~1.72 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Kukesi win

Published at 47%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Kukesi win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Kastrioti Krujë win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
FK Kukesi or draw	73%	–	–
FK Kukesi clean sheet	31%	–	–
Kastrioti Krujë clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.3 6.3 4.0 1 8.9 11.4 6.5 2.7 2 7.8 9.1 5.4 2.2 3 4.5 5.2 3.1 4 2.0 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Kukesi down, Kastrioti Krujë across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,077 1st Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.5% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Kukesi at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kastrioti Krujë away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for FK Kukesi, 1.20 for Kastrioti Krujë. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAS 0–2 FKK · KAS 2–1 FKK · FKK 0–1 KAS · KAS 2–0 FKK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 12 Sept

FK KUKESI

LLWLWW1–3 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

KASTRIOTI KRUJË

LWDWLL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Besa Kavajë	7	+10	13
2	Pogradeci	7	+6	13
3	Flamurtari	7	+5	12
4	FK Kukesi	7	+2	12
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	7	+2	12
6	Bylis	7	+2	11
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	7	0	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	7	−2	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	7	−5	8
10	Sopoti Librazhd	7	−4	7
11	Burreli	7	−3	6
12	Oriku	7	−13	1