FK Kukesi v Besa Kavajë prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

FK Kukesi 2–0 Besa Kavajë BESA KAVAJË WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Besa Kavajë win~~43%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.881

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Besa Kavajë win at 43%.
2′KICK-OFF FK Kukesi v Besa Kavajë
5′Little has changed for our model: Besa Kavajë 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
36′We said Besa Kavajë at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 62–24–14
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' FK Kukesi 1–0 Besa Kavajë
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Besa Kavajë win: 43% at kick-off, 14% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' FK Kukesi win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Besa Kavajë win 14%)
37′FK Kukesi find the net on 37′. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–24–13
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Besa Kavajë win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′SECOND HALF FK Kukesi 1–0 Besa Kavajë
46′HALF-TIME FK Kukesi 1–0 Besa Kavajë
51′We said Besa Kavajë at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
67′We said Besa Kavajë at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Besa Kavajë win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' FK Kukesi 2–0 Besa Kavajë
80′A goal for FK Kukesi on 80′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME FK Kukesi 2–0 Besa Kavajë
FTFK Kukesi 2–0 Besa Kavajë · Besa Kavajë win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Besa Kavajë are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Kukesi 31%, draw 26%, Besa Kavajë 43%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on FK Kukesi v Besa KavajëBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

FK Kukesi win31%

Draw26%

Besa Kavajë win43%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueKukes Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Kukesi

Besa Kavajë

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

Last match: 11 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Besa Kavajë	5	+10	10
8	FK Kukesi	5	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · besa kavajë winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

43% The market49%

Us43%

~~Market~~49%

We make Besa Kavajë a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Kukesi v Besa Kavajë~~1.24 – 1.52

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~8 v 2

~~The market · Besa Kavajë win~~49% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Besa Kavajë win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Kukesi win	31%	24%	+7
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Besa Kavajë win	43%	49%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	49%	+2
Both teams to score	55%	53%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
FK Kukesi or draw	57%	51%	+6
FK Kukesi clean sheet	23%	–	–
Besa Kavajë clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 9.3 7.3 3.7 1 7.5 12.2 8.6 4.4 2 4.9 7.1 5.3 2.7 3 2.1 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Kukesi down, Besa Kavajë across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,065 1st Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.29 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Kukesi at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Besa Kavajë away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for FK Kukesi, 1.52 for Besa Kavajë. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.29

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FKK 2–1 BES · FKK 1–0 BES · BES 3–1 FKK · BES 3–1 FKK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

FK KUKESI

WLLWL2–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–1

BESA KAVAJË

DWWLW3–3 · 4–0 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogradeci	5	+6	11
2	Besa Kavajë	5	+10	10
3	Bylis	5	+2	9
4	Kastrioti Krujë	5	+2	8
5	Korabi Peshkopi	5	−3	7
6	Flamurtari	5	+1	6
7	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	5	0	6
8	FK Kukesi	5	−1	6
9	Burreli	5	−1	6
10	Besëlidhja Lezhë	5	−2	5
11	Sopoti Librazhd	5	−4	5
12	Oriku	5	−10	0