Bylis v Pogradeci prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Bylis 2–2 Pogradeci BYLIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bylis win~~38%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.741

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bylis win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bylis was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Bylis v Pogradeci
11′We published Bylis at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–12
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Bylis 1–0 Pogradeci
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Bylis win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
12′Bylis score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–12
23′We published Bylis at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Bylis 1–1 Pogradeci
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Bylis win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
27′Pogradeci find the net on 26′. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–36–30
31′Pogradeci level it on 27′ through S. Kazeem. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–38–29
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Bylis win 70%)
42′We said Bylis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–22–70
42′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–22–70
42′A goal for Pogradeci on 42′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 8–22–70
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Bylis 1–2 Pogradeci
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bylis win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Pogradeci win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 42%)
45′SECOND HALF Bylis 2–2 Pogradeci
46′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 29–45–26
46′Bylis score on 45′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 29–45–26
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bylis 2–2 Pogradeci
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Bylis win: 38% at kick-off, 29% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Pogradeci win 71%)
48′HALF-TIME Bylis 2–2 Pogradeci
55′We said Bylis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 2–2 · 26–50–23
59′We said Bylis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–54–22
69′We said Bylis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–64–17
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Bylis win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
76′We said Bylis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–73–13
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Bylis
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Bylis win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
90′We said Bylis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Bylis 2–2 Pogradeci
FTBylis 2–2 Pogradeci · Bylis win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bylis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bylis 38%, draw 30%, Pogradeci 33%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Bylis v PogradeciBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bylis win38%

Draw30%

Pogradeci win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadiumi Adush Muca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bylis

Pogradeci

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bylis winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

38% The market38%

Us38%

~~Market~~38%

We make Bylis a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bylis v Pogradeci~~1.17 – 1.07

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~3 v 1

~~The market · Bylis win~~38% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bylis win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bylis win	38%	38%	0
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Pogradeci win	33%	33%	0
Over 2.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
Bylis or draw	67%	67%	0
Bylis clean sheet	35%	–	–
Pogradeci clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.9 10.8 6.1 2.3 1 11.9 13.3 6.8 2.5 2 7.3 7.4 4.0 3 2.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bylis down, Pogradeci across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,071 1st Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bylis at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pogradeci away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Bylis, 1.07 for Pogradeci. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BYL 7–1 POG · POG 0–3 BYL · BYL 1–0 POG · POG 1–2 BYL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

BYLIS

DWDDWD1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

POGRADECI

DWWDWD0–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogradeci	6	+6	12
2	Besa Kavajë	6	+8	10
3	Bylis	6	+2	10
4	Flamurtari	6	+4	9
5	FK Kukesi	6	+1	9
6	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	6	+1	9
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	6	+1	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	6	−1	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	6	−3	8
10	Burreli	6	−2	6
11	Sopoti Librazhd	6	−4	6
12	Oriku	6	−13	0