Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1
Back

Home › Football › 1st Division › Bylis v FK Kukesi

Albania flag

Bylis v FK Kukesi

Bylis
1–0Full time
FK Kukesi

1st Division · SAT 10 OCT · Stadiumi Adush Muca

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10
Bylis 1–0 FK Kukesi BYLIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Bylis win61%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.236
The market’s Brier score0.472

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bylis win at 61%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Bylis was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–22–16
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bylis v FK Kukesi
  4. 41′We said Bylis at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–16
  5. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Bylis win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Bylis 0–0 FK Kukesi
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Bylis 0–0 FK Kukesi
  8. 63′We said Bylis at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–51–13
  9. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Bylis win: 61% at kick-off, 36% now
  10. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Bylis win 36%)
  11. 83′We said Bylis at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–82–5
  12. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Bylis win: 61% at kick-off, 13% now
  13. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Bylis 1–0 FK Kukesi
  14. FTFULL TIME Bylis 1–0 FK Kukesi
  15. FTBylis 1–0 FK Kukesi · Bylis win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bylis win61%
Draw23%
FK Kukesi win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Stadiumi Adush Muca

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bylis winPublished 10 Oct 12:19
61% The market44%
Us61%
Market44%

We make Bylis a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1710 OCT 03:53
Our probability · bylis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bylis win61%44%+17
Draw23%29%−5
FK Kukesi win16%27%−11
Over 2.5 goals49%45%+4
Both teams to score46%50%−4
Over 1.5 goals74%69%+5
Over 3.5 goals28%26%+2
Bylis or draw84%73%+11
Bylis clean sheet45%––
FK Kukesi clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%
0123450 8.2 5.5 2.5 1 12.6 10.7 4.2 2 11.6 9.0 3.7 3 7.1 5.5 2.2 4 3.5 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bylis down, FK Kukesi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1st Division

BYLIS

DLDWDD0–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

FK KUKESI

DWWLLW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pogradeci4+48
2Besa Kavajë4+87
3Korabi Peshkopi4−17
4Iliria Fushë-Krujë4+26
5Bylis4+16
6FK Kukesi406
7Kastrioti Krujë405
8Burreli4−15
9Sopoti Librazhd4−25
10Besëlidhja Lezhë4−24
11Flamurtari4−13
12Oriku4−80

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.