Burreli v FK Kukesi prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Burreli 1–2 FK Kukesi BURRELI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Burreli win~~43%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.815

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burreli win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Burreli 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
1′KICK-OFF Burreli v FK Kukesi
14′A goal for Burreli on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
14′We said Burreli at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Burreli 1–0 FK Kukesi
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Burreli win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
20′We said Burreli at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
45′HALF-TIME Burreli 1–0 FK Kukesi
46′SECOND HALF Burreli 1–0 FK Kukesi
53′We said Burreli at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Burreli win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
65′FK Kukesi score on 65′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–60–16
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Burreli 1–1 FK Kukesi
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Burreli win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Burreli win 84%)
66′We said Burreli at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–61–16
71′FK Kukesi find the net on 70′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–17–81
71′We said Burreli at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–2 · 2–17–81
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Burreli 1–2 FK Kukesi
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Burreli win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' FK Kukesi win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 66%)
72′FK Kukesi ahead on 71′ through G. Schepanski. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–81
73′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–16–82
FTFULL TIME Burreli 1–2 FK Kukesi
FTBurreli 1–2 FK Kukesi · Burreli win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Burreli are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Burreli 43%, draw 30%, FK Kukesi 27%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Burreli v FK KukesiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Burreli win43%

Draw30%

FK Kukesi win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueLiri Ballabani Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Burreli

FK Kukesi

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

Last match: 16 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	FK Kukesi	6	+1	9
10	Burreli	6	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · burreli winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market35%

Us43%

~~Market~~35%

We make Burreli a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Burreli v FK Kukesi~~1.24 – 0.90

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 9~~10 v 5

~~The market · Burreli win~~35% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Burreli win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burreli win	43%	35%	+8
Draw	30%	30%	0
FK Kukesi win	27%	36%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	36%	41%	−5
Both teams to score	42%	48%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	63%	66%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	22%	−5
Burreli or draw	73%	64%	+9
Burreli clean sheet	41%	–	–
FK Kukesi clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 12.8 10.2 4.9 1 14.0 13.3 5.8 2 8.9 7.8 3.5 3 3.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burreli down, FK Kukesi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,073 1st Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Burreli at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FK Kukesi away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Burreli, 0.90 for FK Kukesi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BUR 0–0 FKK · FKK 2–0 BUR · BUR 2–0 FKK · FKK 1–2 BUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

BURRELI

DDLWDL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

FK KUKESI

WLLWLW2–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogradeci	7	+6	13
2	Flamurtari	7	+5	12
3	Bylis	7	+2	11
4	Besa Kavajë	6	+8	10
5	FK Kukesi	6	+1	9
6	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	6	+1	9
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	7	0	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	6	−1	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	6	−3	8
10	Burreli	6	−2	6
11	Sopoti Librazhd	6	−4	6
12	Oriku	6	−13	0