Burreli v Besëlidhja Lezhë prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Burreli 0–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë BURRELI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Burreli win~~48%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.771

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burreli win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Burreli v Besëlidhja Lezhë
2′Little has changed for our model: Burreli 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–28–23
3′Little has changed for our model: Burreli 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–23
45′HALF-TIME Burreli 0–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Burreli win: 48% at kick-off, 37% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Burreli win 37%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Burreli win: 48% at kick-off, 43% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Burreli win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Draw 35%)
46′SECOND HALF Burreli 0–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Burreli win: 48% at kick-off, 37% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Burreli win 37%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Burreli win: 48% at kick-off, 37% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Burreli win 37%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Burreli win: 48% at kick-off, 37% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Burreli win 37%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Burreli win: 48% at kick-off, 37% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Burreli win 37%)
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Besëlidhja Lezhë
FTFULL TIME Burreli 0–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë
FTBurreli 0–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë · Burreli win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Burreli win48%

Draw29%

Besëlidhja Lezhë win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueLiri Ballabani Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Burreli

Besëlidhja Lezhë

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Burreli	4	−1	5
11	Besëlidhja Lezhë	4	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · burreli winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

48% The market37%

Us48%

~~Market~~37%

We make Burreli a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · burreli win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burreli win	48%	37%	+10
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Besëlidhja Lezhë win	23%	34%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Both teams to score	41%	50%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	23%	−5
Burreli or draw	77%	66%	+11
Burreli clean sheet	45%	–	–
Besëlidhja Lezhë clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 12.7 9.1 4.1 1 14.6 12.6 5.1 2 10.0 7.9 3.3 3 4.7 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burreli down, Besëlidhja Lezhë across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,061 1st Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Burreli at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Besëlidhja Lezhë away: 0.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Burreli, 0.83 for Besëlidhja Lezhë. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BUR 0–0 BES · BES 1–1 BUR · BUR 3–0 BES · BES 0–5 BUR

Form · last six in 1st Division

BURRELI

WDDDLW1–0 · 4–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

BESËLIDHJA LEZHË

LLLLDW0–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bylis	5	+2	9
2	Pogradeci	4	+4	8
3	Besa Kavajë	4	+8	7
4	Korabi Peshkopi	4	−1	7
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	4	+2	6
6	Flamurtari	5	+1	6
7	FK Kukesi	5	−1	6
8	Kastrioti Krujë	4	0	5
9	Burreli	4	−1	5
10	Sopoti Librazhd	5	−4	5
11	Besëlidhja Lezhë	4	−2	4
12	Oriku	4	−8	0