Besëlidhja Lezhë v Sopoti Librazhd prediction · 1st Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Besëlidhja LezhëDrawSopoti Librazhd

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Besëlidhja Lezhë 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Besëlidhja Lezhë are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Besëlidhja Lezhë 42%, draw 28%, Sopoti Librazhd 30%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Besëlidhja Lezhë v Sopoti LibrazhdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Besëlidhja Lezhë win42%

Draw28%

Sopoti Librazhd win30%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Besëlidhja Lezhë

Sopoti Librazhd

5Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

Last match: 24 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	7	0	8
10	Sopoti Librazhd	7	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · besëlidhja lezhë winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Besëlidhja Lezhë a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Besëlidhja Lezhë v Sopoti Librazhd~~1.34 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~7 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Besëlidhja Lezhë win

Published at 41%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Besëlidhja Lezhë win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Sopoti Librazhd win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw	70%	–	–
Besëlidhja Lezhë clean sheet	36%	–	–
Sopoti Librazhd clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 10.3 9.4 5.2 1 11.6 12.7 6.4 2.4 2 8.0 8.1 4.2 3 3.7 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Besëlidhja Lezhë down, Sopoti Librazhd across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,077 1st Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.5% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sopoti Librazhd away: 1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Besëlidhja Lezhë, 1.06 for Sopoti Librazhd. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BES 1–1 SOP · BES 1–1 SOP · SOP 4–1 BES · BES 0–2 SOP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 12 Sept

BESËLIDHJA LEZHË

LDWDWL1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–1

SOPOTI LIBRAZHD

LWDLDD0–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Besa Kavajë	7	+10	13
2	Pogradeci	7	+6	13
3	Flamurtari	7	+5	12
4	FK Kukesi	7	+2	12
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	7	+2	12
6	Bylis	7	+2	11
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	7	0	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	7	−2	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	7	−5	8
10	Sopoti Librazhd	7	−4	7
11	Burreli	7	−3	6
12	Oriku	7	−13	1