Besa Kavajë v Korabi Peshkopi prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Besa Kavajë 2–0 Korabi Peshkopi BESA KAVAJË WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Besa Kavajë win~~60%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.243

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.155

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Besa Kavajë win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Besa Kavajë was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–17
1′KICK-OFF Besa Kavajë v Korabi Peshkopi
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Besa Kavajë win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
40′We said Besa Kavajë at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–35–17
45′HALF-TIME Besa Kavajë 0–0 Korabi Peshkopi
46′SECOND HALF Besa Kavajë 0–0 Korabi Peshkopi
48′We said Besa Kavajë at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–16
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 40–44–15
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Besa Kavajë win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Besa Kavajë win 42%)
57′We said Besa Kavajë at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–15
64′We said Besa Kavajë at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–53–13
64′PENALTY MISSED · 63' Besa Kavajë
66′Besa Kavajë find the net on 65′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–1
66′We published Besa Kavajë at 60%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–1
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Besa Kavajë 1–0 Korabi Peshkopi
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Besa Kavajë win: 60% at kick-off, 87% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Besa Kavajë win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 54%)
74′We published Besa Kavajë at 60%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Besa Kavajë win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
83′We published Besa Kavajë at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
92′A goal for Besa Kavajë on 90′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Besa Kavajë 2–0 Korabi Peshkopi
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Besa Kavajë win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
93′We published Besa Kavajë at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Besa Kavajë 2–0 Korabi Peshkopi
FTBesa Kavajë 2–0 Korabi Peshkopi · Besa Kavajë win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Besa Kavajë are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Besa Kavajë 60%, draw 23%, Korabi Peshkopi 17%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Besa Kavajë v Korabi PeshkopiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Besa Kavajë win60%

Draw23%

Korabi Peshkopi win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Besa Kavajë

Korabi Peshkopi

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (Albania)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Besa Kavajë	6	+8	10
9	Korabi Peshkopi	6	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · besa kavajë winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

60% The market68%

Us60%

~~Market~~68%

We make Besa Kavajë a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Besa Kavajë v Korabi Peshkopi~~1.84 – 0.83

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~4 v 9

~~The market · Besa Kavajë win~~68% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Besa Kavajë win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Besa Kavajë win	60%	68%	−8
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Korabi Peshkopi win	17%	11%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	44%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Besa Kavajë or draw	83%	89%	−6
Besa Kavajë clean sheet	44%	–	–
Korabi Peshkopi clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 8.0 5.6 2.6 1 12.4 10.9 4.4 2 11.4 9.2 3.8 3 7.0 5.6 2.3 4 3.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Besa Kavajë down, Korabi Peshkopi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,073 1st Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Besa Kavajë at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Korabi Peshkopi away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Besa Kavajë, 0.83 for Korabi Peshkopi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BES 1–1 KOR · BES 3–1 KOR · KOR 0–0 BES · KOR 0–2 BES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 6 Sept

BESA KAVAJË

DWWLWL3–3 · 4–0 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–2

KORABI PESHKOPI

WWDLLD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogradeci	7	+6	13
2	Flamurtari	7	+5	12
3	Bylis	7	+2	11
4	Besa Kavajë	6	+8	10
5	FK Kukesi	6	+1	9
6	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	6	+1	9
7	Besëlidhja Lezhë	7	0	8
8	Kastrioti Krujë	6	−1	8
9	Korabi Peshkopi	6	−3	8
10	Burreli	6	−2	6
11	Sopoti Librazhd	6	−4	6
12	Oriku	6	−13	0