Besa Kavajë v Iliria Fushë-Krujë prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Besa Kavajë 2–0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë BESA KAVAJË WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Besa Kavajë win~~52%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.344

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.283

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Besa Kavajë win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Besa Kavajë v Iliria Fushë-Krujë
8′Much as we predicted: Besa Kavajë was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
9′Much as we predicted: Besa Kavajë was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–21
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Besa Kavajë 1–0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë
31′Besa Kavajë find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Besa Kavajë win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
32′Besa Kavajë find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Besa Kavajë win: 52% at kick-off, 51% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Besa Kavajë win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Besa Kavajë 2–0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë
45′A goal for Besa Kavajë on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Besa Kavajë 2–0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Besa Kavajë win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Besa Kavajë win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
46′SECOND HALF Besa Kavajë 2–0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Besa Kavajë win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Besa Kavajë win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Besa Kavajë win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Besa Kavajë 2–0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë
FTBesa Kavajë 2–0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë · Besa Kavajë win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Besa Kavajë win52%

Draw26%

Iliria Fushë-Krujë win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Besa Kavajë

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Besa Kavajë	4	+8	7
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	4	+2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · besa kavajë winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

52% The market57%

Us52%

~~Market~~57%

We make Besa Kavajë a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · besa kavajë win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Besa Kavajë win	52%	57%	−5
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Iliria Fushë-Krujë win	22%	18%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Besa Kavajë or draw	78%	82%	−4
Besa Kavajë clean sheet	41%	–	–
Iliria Fushë-Krujë clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.4 7.3 3.5 1 12.7 12.1 5.2 2 10.2 8.9 4.0 3 5.4 4.7 2.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Besa Kavajë down, Iliria Fushë-Krujë across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,061 1st Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Besa Kavajë at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Iliria Fushë-Krujë away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Besa Kavajë, 0.90 for Iliria Fushë-Krujë. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ILI 1–0 BES · BES 3–1 ILI · ILI 2–1 BES

Form · last six in 1st Division

BESA KAVAJË

DLDWWL1–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 4–0 · 5–0 · 1–2

ILIRIA FUSHË-KRUJË

WDDWDD2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bylis	5	+2	9
2	Pogradeci	4	+4	8
3	Besa Kavajë	4	+8	7
4	Korabi Peshkopi	4	−1	7
5	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	4	+2	6
6	Flamurtari	5	+1	6
7	FK Kukesi	5	−1	6
8	Kastrioti Krujë	4	0	5
9	Burreli	4	−1	5
10	Sopoti Librazhd	5	−4	5
11	Besëlidhja Lezhë	4	−2	4
12	Oriku	4	−8	0